By In a thrilling finish, Baffert trained #18 Authentic at 8-1 held off the favorite, #17 Tiz the Law at 3-5 to win the Kentucky Derby in an upset. This was the reverse order of Program 4.1’s projections, which had Tiz the Law first and Authentic second. Of note, Authentic had a higher COMP estimate at 36.1% versus 31% for Tiz the Law, indicating that at a component level (simulated E1, E2 and LP results combined) Authentic projected slightly stronger. Authentic paid $18.80 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $41.00. Earlier, Baffert lost his other horse in the field, #10 Thousand Words, who had reared up and fell about forty minutes before the race, causing his automatic scratch. Unfortunately, the optimism for NY Traffic did not pan out. Whether due to injury or not, the horse weakened at the quarter pole after running first and second off the pace until that point.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 