Besides a number of graded stakes turf races taking place at Kentucky Downs today, there were several graded stakes races north of the border at Woodbine, the premier being the $1 mi. Queen’s Plate Stakes for three-year-olds at 1 1/4 mi. on the main track. The program’s first selection was #10 Curlin’s Voyage with a win probability of 20.81%, who was also the odd’s favorite at 5-2. That made him a slight overlay. The program’s second choice was #13 Mighty Heart, who had a 12.33% win probability. The horse had the 2nd highest final speed estimate at 19.0%, while Curlin’s Voyage was 1st at 32.7%. Even though Mighty Heart’s final speed projection was high, the horse was at a discount at 13-1. The reason for its low price in terms of expectations was that it had only a 5.9% win percentage adjusted for stakes over four races. In the race, #13 Mighty Heart showed he was all heart, winning by eight lengths going away. The horse paid $28.50 for the win. This race shows again the success of the HW philosophy, which is selecting horses with reasonable chances to win, who also are undervalued according to the program. Here Mighty Heart was valued at 4-1 by final speed in the simulation but was offered at odds of 13-1.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 