Month: September 2020

Here are the results of the graded stakes races at Churchill today. They were mostly chalk heavy, except the Oaks, which was a complete fiasco due to the lack of disqualification by the winner, #7 Shedaresthedevil. The program had the exacta in the 9th (Turf Program), a winner with the top selection in the 10th, a winner with the second selection by very small margin in the 11th and a winner with the 3rd selection in the 13th (Turf Program). For the 13th, the Grey 4.1 version had #1 Diamond Ops, who won, as a second selection due to the fact that he most recently had run on dirt and had two and three races back the highest final speed figures in the entire field, which increased its win probability relative to the turf result. In the Oaks in the 12th, the stewards missed the disqualification of #7 Shedaresthedevil, with Florent Geroux first bumping and then cutting off the odds favorite #5 Gamine toward the inside by steering his horse from the five to the three path halfway down the stretch. This caused Gamine to weaken, who as a fillie and not a bumper car, wanted no part of any more contact. By comparison, Maximum Security was disqualified for probably less in last year’s Kentucky Derby for cutting off War of Will around the far turn.

Race 9 — $300K Edgewood Stakes

Race 10 — $400K Alysheba Stakes

Race 11 — $500K Troienne Stakes

Race 13 —$250K Turf Sprint Stakes

The Turf Program saw a nice result today in the 7th at Churchill, a $100K allowance race at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up. In a competitive race with twelve horses and none receiving a win probability higher than 20%, #6 Flabbergasted was the first selection at 3-1 with a total win probability of 17.23%., who was the second winning-est horse at 19.2% WP after #7 I Hear You at 20.4%. I Hear You was the odds favorite at 2-1. That is how the order went, with Flabbergasted going wire-to-wire. I Hear You finished a length back second. This is another race where the exacta strategy of boxing the odds favorite with the top two program selections worked. Flabbergasted paid $8.60, while the $2 exacta paid $28.60.

Here are the projections for the $3 mil. Kentucky Derby at Churchill on Saturday, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features #17 Tiz the Law at 3-5 on the M/L, who has won his last four races, three of which were G1s, including the Travers, the Belmont and the Florida Derby. Vying against him is Baffert trained, #18 Authentic, winner of the G1 Haskell, the G2 San Felipe and the G3 Sham, as well as Santa Anita Derby winner, #16 Honor A.P., and Haskell runner-up, #15 NY Traffic. Tiz the Law is sitting in the driver’s seat in this race, having the highest total winning probability at 31.68% and a 51.6% winning SPD estimate according to the simulation. With a fair value then around 2-1, Tiz the Law would be expensive according to the M/L price of 3-5 in this seventeen horse field, which is one less after the scratch of #6 King Guillermo yesterday due to fever. Given the long distance of the race, many of the horses will be tiring down the stretch, except those with strong LP estimates, who are Tiz the Law at 24.6%, Honor A.P. at 24.5% and NY Traffic 23.7%. The only horse of the three offering value according to this metric is NY Traffic at 20-1 on the M/L, who is this handicapper’s pick to win. My choice has to do with the significant progression of the horse from his 2nd place finish in the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill in late May to his very close 2nd place finish in the Haskell in mid July, when he nearly caught Authentic at the wire while recording a career best SPD of 107. The increase from 95 to 107 in the span of two months suggests the horse has more upside in the Kentucky Derby, where he has had nearly the same amount of rest this time around. His owner, John Fanelli, indicated as much in an interview from Sept. 2, saying his horse has continued to improve in training. What is remarkable about NY Traffic is that he is a freak-of-nature, in that the horse has no great pedigree as a son of Cross Traffic on the sire-side and of Mamie Reilly on the dam-side. With Tiz the Law coming off a career best 115 SPD just a month ago, the possibility for a regression by him off the short rest is real. Therefore, I am looking for NY Traffic to upset Tiz the Law, with Honor A.P. finishing 3rd. The program’s selections are Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A.P. and Max Player. After clicking on the image, click on the link on the bottom right to see in full resolution.

• 

There are times when a user may question the results of the Handicap Wizard, including this user, for one reason or another, yet time and time again the winning algorithm holds up. One such race was race 6 at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race at 6f for three-year-olds. The program’s first selection was #3 Captain Duke at 2-1 with a 22.7% total win probability, followed by #2 One Fast at 16-1 with a 16.95% win probability. On the face of the results of his simulated speed data, there was no reason to believe that One Fast had any chance in this race, who had 0% across the board. However, the horse was the winning-est in the field with a 41.9% WP adjusted for stakes and was coming off a 288 day layoff. In the race, One Fast broke quickest from the gate, with Captain Duke close behind in second. It stayed this way the whole race, as Captain Duke pulled off the big upset. The $2 exacta paid $153.60.

Here was a nice result today in the 1st at Saratoga, a $75K maiden race off the turf at 1 1/8 mi. for three-year olds and up. In a seven horse field that had five horses with similar odds between 9-5 and 3-1, the program’s first selection in #10 Lost in Rome at 3-1 under the reins of Luiz Saez went wire-to-wire. The horse was strong in all the metrics, including a 33.4% SPD winning estimate, a 57% COMP estimate and a 41.4% Winning Percentage adjusted for stakes. Lost in Rome paid $8.90. The other horse that received a FIT2 checkmark—Magic Mojo because of a 50% LP estimate—came in second.