Month: October 2020

The Handicap Wizard did well today in the 4th at Parx, a $7.5K claiming race for three-year-olds at 5.5f, with its first selection, #7 Moe Trouble at 3-1. The program assigned it a winning probability of 39.26%, due largely to a 62% winning percentage, adjusted for stakes. The horse also was dominant in E1 and E2 according to the simulation with win estimates of 64.8% and 75.2%. Despite not performing well its last two starts, Moe Trouble had no trouble today in getting the win with a wire-to-wire performance. His jockey and trainer were best in the field with winning percentages of 21% and 19%. Moe Trouble was well undervalued at 3-1 and paid $8.60. This is exactly what you would like to see from a first selection.

The Handicap Wizard had good results in the graded stakes races at Belmont today, winning three out of eight with its top selections along with having one winner with a second selection. With first selections, the Handicap Wizard had a profit of $11.30 for eight $2 single wagers and a ROI of +70.62%. The program had winners in the 6th in the $175K Empire Distaff Handicap with #6 Lucky Move at 4-1, in the 7th in the $125K Hudson Handicap with #1 Tribecca at 5-1 and in the 8th in the $150K Mohawk Stakes on turf with #7 Somelikeithotbrown at 6-5. The program’s 2nd selection, #2 Mr. Buff, finished 1st at 7-2 in the $175K Empire Classic Handicap in the 10th. The graded stakes races in the 2nd and 3rd were for two-year-olds and so there was minimal data to evaluate, while the horse that won the graded stakes race in the 9th was the biggest long-shot on the board at 23-1.

Race 6 – Empire Distaff

Race 7 – Hudson Handicap

Race 8 – Mohawk Stakes

Race 10 – Empire Classic

The program had another nice result in the 5th race at Parx today, a $25K optional claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The 1st selection was #6 Isabellaalexa at 5-2 versus a total win probability of 23.50%. The horse had the highest SPD estimate at 31.8% and highest WP% at 21.2%, earning it a FIT2 checkmark. The 2nd selection was #2 Light Up the Night with a 19.62% win probability. Light Up the Night had the 2nd highest SPD estimate at 28.4% and the highest LP estimate at 46.2%. That was the order of the exacta (6-2). Isabellaalexa paid $7.20, while the $2 exacta paid $43.60.

In race 3 today at Monmouth, a $12.5K claiming race run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up, the Handicap Wizard saw a good result with its 1st selection, #11 City Plan. Despite odds of 23-1, the Turf 4.0 Program assessed the horse as best in the field with a total win probability of 16.49%. City Plan was ranked 3rd according to the final speed simulation with a 21% win estimate, but was 1st according to COMP at 68.5%. Granted City Plan was not an easy horse to choose, as it had only run on turf once before and its recent starts had been poor. On turf, however, the math favored the horse, including an expected ROI of 296%! In the race, City Plan led throughout but was caught by #1 Sadler Bay just before the wire. Still, City Plan paid $27.00 for the place.

The Handicap Wizard saw a good result in the only graded stakes race at Keeneland today—the $200K G2 Raven Run Stakes in the 9th—run at 7f on the dirt for three-year-old fillies. The first selection according to the program was #5 Venetian Harbor with a total win probability of 36.89%, which was close to the implied win probability of its odds of 8-5. The horse had the highest SPD estimate at 51.8% and the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 22%, which together earned it a FIT2 checkmark. Venetian Harbor went wire-to-wire in this race, holding off a late challenge by #4 Finite at 9-1, who had the second highest winning percentage at 19.2%. Venetian Harbor paid $5.20, while the $2 exacta paid $53.60.

The real prize to be had was in the 10th race, a $20K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The odds favorite was #2 Quarterback Dak at 6-5 versus a total win probability of 11.10%. The horse was not among the top three selections, however, which were #9 El Suprino at 5-1 with a 24.65% win probability, #1 Why Why Paul Why at 10-1 with a 17.47% win probability and #3 Money for Mischief at 12-1 with a 13.22% win probability. Those were also the top three horses according to the results of the final speed simulation with values of 37.3%, 27.5% and 19.4%, respectively. The horse with the highest LP estimate was Money for Mischief at 40.2%, which proved to be the deciding factor down the stretch, as the horse defeated Why Why Paul Why by a length. Thwarted by traffic coming out of the far turn, Quarterback Dak finished 3rd. A $6 investment in a $1 exacta box with the top three selections (1-3-9) paid a whopping $148.00. The $0.50 tri-fecta 3-1-2 paid $177.75.