By On Saturday is the $1 mil. Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. It features a stellar field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #9 Authentic at 9-5 on the M/L, #3 Art Collector at 5-2, who won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the fillie, #4 Swiss Skydiver at 6-1, who ran 2nd in the G1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill and 1st in the G1 Alabama at Saratoga, as well as #5 Thousand Words at 6-1, who beat Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar but was scratched from the Kentucky Derby shortly before the start after rearing up and falling. The Handicap Wizard is a favoring Authentic as its first selection with a total win probability of 31.74%, which is close to the implied probability of its M/L price of 9-5. The horse rates best in final speed with a 29.6% win estimate and has relatively low risk with a CV of 5.91%. Authentic is the only horse in the field to receive a FIT2 check-mark for having the highest SPD estimate and WP at 41.5%. The second selection is Swiss Skydiver with a 18.6% win probability, who, while rating slightly lower in final speed with a 20.3% win estimate, has the highest COMP estimate at 37.3%. This indicates the horse rates at odds as low as 2-1 with its components (E1, E2 and LP) combined in simulation against the other horses, while Swiss Skydiver also has low risk with a 4.5% CV. In the Kentucky Derby, Authentic also had the highest COMP estimate at 36.1% in that field and ended up defeating the favorite, Tiz the Law, at 8-1. The third selection is Art Collector with a 15.42% win probability, who has done no wrong in 2020 by winning his last five races. Art Collector has the highest LP estimate at 37.7% compared to Authentic’s 0.1% and Swiss Skydiver’s 18.8%. The wildcard in the race is Baffert trained, Thousand Words, who gets another crack at his stable-mate, Authentic, under the ride of Florent Geroux. With Authentic having regressed in his last race in terms of final speed to 104 from 107, he could be vulnerable in this race to a horse like Thousand Words, who has not peaked. As a long-shot, #7 NY Traffic at 15-1 is back after finishing a disappointing 8th in the Kentucky Derby, when it was discovered afterward he had lost a shoe and suffered cuts to his ankle that required a staple. NY Traffic recorded the second fastest work on Sept. 27 at Churchill over 4f with a time of 48 seconds flat. The program’s top selections are #9 Authentic, #4 Swiss Skydiver, #3 Art Collector and #5 Thousand Words. Click on the image and then the link in the lower right to see in full resolution.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 