Day: October 21, 2020

The program had another nice result in the 5th race at Parx today, a $25K optional claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The 1st selection was #6 Isabellaalexa at 5-2 versus a total win probability of 23.50%. The horse had the highest SPD estimate at 31.8% and highest WP% at 21.2%, earning it a FIT2 checkmark. The 2nd selection was #2 Light Up the Night with a 19.62% win probability. Light Up the Night had the 2nd highest SPD estimate at 28.4% and the highest LP estimate at 46.2%. That was the order of the exacta (6-2). Isabellaalexa paid $7.20, while the $2 exacta paid $43.60.

In race 3 today at Monmouth, a $12.5K claiming race run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up, the Handicap Wizard saw a good result with its 1st selection, #11 City Plan. Despite odds of 23-1, the Turf 4.0 Program assessed the horse as best in the field with a total win probability of 16.49%. City Plan was ranked 3rd according to the final speed simulation with a 21% win estimate, but was 1st according to COMP at 68.5%. Granted City Plan was not an easy horse to choose, as it had only run on turf once before and its recent starts had been poor. On turf, however, the math favored the horse, including an expected ROI of 296%! In the race, City Plan led throughout but was caught by #1 Sadler Bay just before the wire. Still, City Plan paid $27.00 for the place.