Month: November 2020

Today at Churchill was the the G1 $500K Clark Handicap, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. In a race that had little late speed, #3 Code of Honor was the favorite at 8-5 and was also the first selection in the program with a total win probability of 31.9%. Code of Honor rated best and 2nd best in SPD and LP with 31.9% and 28% win estimates and also had the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 19.1%. #12 By My Standards was second in the betting at 5-2, who did not perform well in the Breeders Cup Classic last month and generally has been out of form of late, but still had the 2nd highest winning percentage at 16.8%. The other speed in the race was #8 Bodexpress at 11-1 with a 27.4% SPD estimate but a low WP of only 1.5% and #9 Owendale at 5-1 with a 24.9% SPD estimate. Bodexpress‘ odds were 21-1 before dropping sharply down to 11-1 by post-time. Even though Code of Honor was a good horse in this race, receiving a FIT2 checkmark for being TOP in SPD and in WP, he was a tepid favorite at 8-5. Having been fools gold in the past, Bodexpress came into the race in absolute top form after winning a $62.5K optional claiming race by eleven lengths at Gulfstream West in Oct. In the race, long shot, #13 Phantom Currency at 99-1, set a brisk pace for the opening quarter mile in 23.39, while being pursued by #7 Mr. Freeze at 9-1 and #8 Bodexpress. It continued this way through the half mile mark, when Mr. Freeze surged to the lead, with Bodexpress following him closely on the outside in second. Down the final stretch Bodexpress took the lead from Mr. Freeze with a furlong to go only to have Code of Honor and Owendale bear down on him from the outside inside the final fifty yards. Showing grit, Bodexpress hung on to win, while Code of Honor finished second and Owendale third. The $2 exacta (8-3) paid $120 and the $0.50 trifecta paid $196.60. The horses in the tri-fecta were the three that rated strongest by final speed in the simulation.

The program has been doing well today, this time having the winner in the 6th race, a $35K allowance race at 7f on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. #9 My Lily Pad at 5-1 (Post 10 in the odds) was the top selection with a win probability of 16.29%. The horse showed favorable early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 33.9% and 22.9% and final speed at 24.4% estimate. She was also third highest in WP at 19%. After winning her previous three races, My Lily Pad showed she was all class in this race by winning going away after taking the lead at the 1/2 mile mark. The favorite, #2 Crazy Bean at 1-1, ran hard down the stretch but came up short for third.

The program continues to perform well today at Parx, this time in the 5th, a $12.5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The first selection was #8 Handle With Care at 7-2 with a total win probability of 26.13%, making the horse a slight underlay. Handle With Care had superior E1 and E2 estimates of 94.5% and 93.7% along with the highest SPD and COMP estimates at 29.9% and 53.5%, earning the horse a FIT2 checkmark. Throughout out his last race, Handle With Care rated very competitively in this field, while #3 Enough Love was a weak favorite at 8-5, rating 3rd highest according to WP and SPD at 19% and 18.3%. The horse’s strength was in LP with an estimate of 59.5%, but proved too little too late. In the race, Handle With Care held on for the win after building a seventh length lead by the quarter pole.

The program had winners with FIT2 selections in back-to-back races at Parx today. In the 2nd race, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, #7 Mammaigothis at 8-1 was a FIT2 selection for his high LP estimate at 51.8%, while also having decent SPD with a 17.7% win estimate. The other FIT2 selection was #3 Always Free for his 55.7% COMP, but the horse did not indicate late speed. In the race, Mammaigothis came like a freight train from well off the pace to run down #1 Violent Impact at 3-2 (coupled entry with Curlin’s Knight) and #4 Traffic Trouble. Here the superior LP projection for Mammaigothis translated into strong performance by the horse at 1 1/16 mi.

In the 3rd race, #9 Finglas at 3-5 was a 1st selection with a win probability of 14.39% and received the FIT2 checkmark for his high LP estimate of 73.5%. He also had the highest SPD estimate at 30.3% against the lowest risk in the field at 4.25% Coefficient of Variance. Like Mammaigothis in the previous race, Finglas came from off the pace, with the jockey doing a good job to find open ground wide around the far turn before charging his horse on to victory. Predictable result.

The program had a nice result in race 4 today at Parx, a $5K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The first selection was #4 Thomas Knight at 8-1, who was near fair value according to his total win probability of 11.49%. The horse rated highest in SPD with a 36.5% win estimate and also had the highest COMP estimate at 26.5%. Where he was lacking was in Winning Percentage, which was only 5.1%. Fortunately, the horse ran according to his speed projections, surging down late for the win.