Breeders Cup Classic Preview, Sat., Nov. 7

Today at Keeneland is the $6 mil. Breeders Cup Classic, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The race features a grand ten-horse field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #9 Authentic at 6-1 on the M/L, Belmont Stakes, Travers and Florida Derby winner, #1 Tiz the Law at 3-1, the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner before the disqualification, #10 Maximum Security at 7-2, and Awesome Again and Whitney Stakes winner, #8 Improbable at 5-2, among others. The race is a classic contest between speed and winning percentage, with Tiz the Law projecting best with a 37.9% winning SPD estimate and Maximum Security having the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 47.7%. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Maximum Security in this contest with a total win probability of 30.43%, making him an underlay compared to his 7-2 M/L odds. The horse has won eleven out of thirteen career starts, but lost most recently to Improbable in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in late September. The question with Maximum Security is whether his 2nd place performance in the Awesome Again was an anomaly or whether the horse has begun to decline. Judging by comments by his trainer, Bob Baffert, on Oct. 29, “Max” has benefited from the six-week break and could not look any better after his breeze on that date. He also said that Maximum Security tired after a brisk pace in his last race, which saw the horse record E1 and E2 figures of 109 and 123. Whatever Maximum Security’s form is coming into the race, it is clear that the horse has the most will to win of any of the horses in the field and should be a factor, at least in terms of pace, on Saturday, where he projects best in terms of E1 and E2 with estimates of 57.3% and 46.5%. He also has the highest COMP estimate in the field at 32.5%, which was the winning indicator in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Next is #2 Tiz the Law as the second selection with a total win probability of 18.46%, who has lost only one race as a three-year-old and that was in the Kentucky Derby in September, when he was bested by Authentic. Tiz the Law did show declining form in that race as his third race off the layoff, when he had less than a month’s rest after winning the Travers at Saratoga in August while putting up a career best final speed figure of 115. Like with Maximum Security, Tiz the Law should benefit from an extended rest since his last race, which is two months in his case. Most recently, he worked 5f at Keeneland on Oct. 31 in 0:59. The third selection is #8 Improbable with a total win probability of 14.28%, who beat his stable mate, Maximum Security, in the Awesome Again stakes by four lengths, finishing under a hand-ride. While not projecting as well as Tiz the Law in terms of final speed, Improbable projects better in E1, E2 and LP and has the second highest COMP estimate after Maximum Security at 31.8%. #9 Authentic is the fourth choice with a total win probability of 13.62%, who has the second highest winning percentage, thanks to his win in the Kentucky Derby, at 13.4%. Selections: Maximum Security, Tiz the Law, Improbable and Authentic. As a long shot, Global Campaign at 20-1 on the M/L has value compared to his final speed estimate of 8.4%, where he ranks 4th. Global Campaign is a winner of his last two—the Woodward and the Monmouth Cup. Click on the image below and then on the link in the lower right hand corner to see in high resolution.