By The program had another good result today in the 3rd at Aqueduct, a $10K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds. Interestingly, there were four FIT2 horses in this race, all contenders according to their individual profiles. The first selection was #2 Summer Bourbon with a 21.23% win probability, who was the favorite in the race at 2-1, making him an overlay. The horse had not shown good form recently with an 8th place finish in his last. The second selection and best choice to win was #7 Earned Success at 4-1. Earned Success projected 1st according to final speed with a 52.0% win estimate and also had the highest COMP at a whopping 64.9%. On the basis of both of those metrics, his fair value was 1-1 or less. #3 Flash Drive was the third selection with a 17.03% win probability and was the horse that indicated early speed according to his E1 and E2 projections of 85.0% and 36.0%. #1 Vicar’s Legend was the 4th choice with a 10.31% win probability. The low win probability was mostly due to the horse having a WP of 3.5%, but the horse had an extremely high LP estimate of 85.1%, signaling the horse was going to be rallying down the stretch. This was how the race played out, with Flash Drive breaking best and leading until the quarter pole, when Earned Success overtook him. Earned Success maintained the lead until the wire, holding off a late challenge by Vicar’s Legend who came flying.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 