By The program had a good result today in the 5th at Hawthorne, a $6.25K maiden claiming race at 1m70y on the dirt for three-year olds. The three contenders in the race were #3 Be Inspiration at 1-1. who had the highest win probability at 27.14%, thanks to a winning SPD estimate of 42.1%, #7 Dirty Bad Boy at 5-2, who had the highest winning percentage at 52.8% and #5 Squirrely Mike at 7-1, who rated 2nd in terms of final speed at 31.9% estimate but 1st in COMP at 53.5%. When deciding to look at COMP, it’s always a good idea to compare it to the risk of the horse or Coefficient of Variation, which was only 6.45% for Squirrely Mike, meaning the COMP estimate was fairly reliable. Squirrely Mike was at a substantial discount to both SPD and COMP and had a positive expected ROI of 57%, while Be Inspiration and Dirty Bad Boy were both clear overlays. Holding true to his speed projections, Squirrely Mike ran a big race, going wire to wire, holding off #2 Off to the Beach at 12-1, for the win. This is another example of how you can identify value and the winner with PHW’s performance stats. Squirrely Mike was a 7-1 horse but had 2-1 fair value according to his SPD estimate and 1-1 fair value according to COMP!
Pro-Handicap Analytics 