By In the 8th race at Aqueduct, a $72K allowance race at 6f for three-year-olds and up, the program had the winner with its first selection in #3 Wow Brown at 7-2. In a field in which no horse’s win probability was above 16%, Wow Brown rated 1st in final speed with a 47.7% win estimate against average risk and a 7.47% Coefficient of Variance. #5 Riken at 5-1 had high E1 and E2 estimates and high COMP at 53.3%, but also had high risk with a 22.40% Coefficient of Variance. The horse recently had fallen out of form. #5 Jemography was another win candidate for having both relatively high SPD and a high LP estimate of 43.4%, triggering a FIT2 check. In the race, Wow Brown finished first and Jemography second.
In the 9th race, the $100K Red Smith Stakes, run at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up, the program’s 1st selection first selection #8 Ziyad (GB) finished third, while its second selection, #10 Red King, finished second. In a surprising upset, #5 North Dakota at 8-1 at surged late down the stretch to take the win. North Dakota projected low as far as SPD, but instead relied heavily upon his LP estimate 20.3%, which was still second to Sadler’s Joy’s at 36.3%. A betting favorite at 8-5,#4 Sadler’s Joy, who was the program’s 3rd selection, came in 4th. These are Turf Program results.
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