Day: November 24, 2020

The program has been doing well today, this time having the winner in the 6th race, a $35K allowance race at 7f on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. #9 My Lily Pad at 5-1 (Post 10 in the odds) was the top selection with a win probability of 16.29%. The horse showed favorable early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 33.9% and 22.9% and final speed at 24.4% estimate. She was also third highest in WP at 19%. After winning her previous three races, My Lily Pad showed she was all class in this race by winning going away after taking the lead at the 1/2 mile mark. The favorite, #2 Crazy Bean at 1-1, ran hard down the stretch but came up short for third.

The program continues to perform well today at Parx, this time in the 5th, a $12.5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The first selection was #8 Handle With Care at 7-2 with a total win probability of 26.13%, making the horse a slight underlay. Handle With Care had superior E1 and E2 estimates of 94.5% and 93.7% along with the highest SPD and COMP estimates at 29.9% and 53.5%, earning the horse a FIT2 checkmark. Throughout out his last race, Handle With Care rated very competitively in this field, while #3 Enough Love was a weak favorite at 8-5, rating 3rd highest according to WP and SPD at 19% and 18.3%. The horse’s strength was in LP with an estimate of 59.5%, but proved too little too late. In the race, Handle With Care held on for the win after building a seventh length lead by the quarter pole.

The program had winners with FIT2 selections in back-to-back races at Parx today. In the 2nd race, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, #7 Mammaigothis at 8-1 was a FIT2 selection for his high LP estimate at 51.8%, while also having decent SPD with a 17.7% win estimate. The other FIT2 selection was #3 Always Free for his 55.7% COMP, but the horse did not indicate late speed. In the race, Mammaigothis came like a freight train from well off the pace to run down #1 Violent Impact at 3-2 (coupled entry with Curlin’s Knight) and #4 Traffic Trouble. Here the superior LP projection for Mammaigothis translated into strong performance by the horse at 1 1/16 mi.

In the 3rd race, #9 Finglas at 3-5 was a 1st selection with a win probability of 14.39% and received the FIT2 checkmark for his high LP estimate of 73.5%. He also had the highest SPD estimate at 30.3% against the lowest risk in the field at 4.25% Coefficient of Variance. Like Mammaigothis in the previous race, Finglas came from off the pace, with the jockey doing a good job to find open ground wide around the far turn before charging his horse on to victory. Predictable result.