Month: November 2020

In the 8th race at Aqueduct, a $72K allowance race at 6f for three-year-olds and up, the program had the winner with its first selection in #3 Wow Brown at 7-2. In a field in which no horse’s win probability was above 16%, Wow Brown rated 1st in final speed with a 47.7% win estimate against average risk and a 7.47% Coefficient of Variance. #5 Riken at 5-1 had high E1 and E2 estimates and high COMP at 53.3%, but also had high risk with a 22.40% Coefficient of Variance. The horse recently had fallen out of form. #5 Jemography was another win candidate for having both relatively high SPD and a high LP estimate of 43.4%, triggering a FIT2 check. In the race, Wow Brown finished first and Jemography second.

In the 9th race, the $100K Red Smith Stakes, run at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up, the program’s 1st selection first selection #8 Ziyad (GB) finished third, while its second selection, #10 Red King, finished second. In a surprising upset, #5 North Dakota at 8-1 at surged late down the stretch to take the win. North Dakota projected low as far as SPD, but instead relied heavily upon his LP estimate 20.3%, which was still second to Sadler’s Joy’s at 36.3%. A betting favorite at 8-5,#4 Sadler’s Joy, who was the program’s 3rd selection, came in 4th. These are Turf Program results.

The program had another good result today in the 3rd at Aqueduct, a $10K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds. Interestingly, there were four FIT2 horses in this race, all contenders according to their individual profiles. The first selection was #2 Summer Bourbon with a 21.23% win probability, who was the favorite in the race at 2-1, making him an overlay. The horse had not shown good form recently with an 8th place finish in his last. The second selection and best choice to win was #7 Earned Success at 4-1. Earned Success projected 1st according to final speed with a 52.0% win estimate and also had the highest COMP at a whopping 64.9%. On the basis of both of those metrics, his fair value was 1-1 or less. #3 Flash Drive was the third selection with a 17.03% win probability and was the horse that indicated early speed according to his E1 and E2 projections of 85.0% and 36.0%. #1 Vicar’s Legend was the 4th choice with a 10.31% win probability. The low win probability was mostly due to the horse having a WP of 3.5%, but the horse had an extremely high LP estimate of 85.1%, signaling the horse was going to be rallying down the stretch. This was how the race played out, with Flash Drive breaking best and leading until the quarter pole, when Earned Success overtook him. Earned Success maintained the lead until the wire, holding off a late challenge by Vicar’s Legend who came flying.

The program had a good result today in the 5th at Hawthorne, a $6.25K maiden claiming race at 1m70y on the dirt for three-year olds. The three contenders in the race were #3 Be Inspiration at 1-1. who had the highest win probability at 27.14%, thanks to a winning SPD estimate of 42.1%, #7 Dirty Bad Boy at 5-2, who had the highest winning percentage at 52.8% and #5 Squirrely Mike at 7-1, who rated 2nd in terms of final speed at 31.9% estimate but 1st in COMP at 53.5%. When deciding to look at COMP, it’s always a good idea to compare it to the risk of the horse or Coefficient of Variation, which was only 6.45% for Squirrely Mike, meaning the COMP estimate was fairly reliable. Squirrely Mike was at a substantial discount to both SPD and COMP and had a positive expected ROI of 57%, while Be Inspiration and Dirty Bad Boy were both clear overlays. Holding true to his speed projections, Squirrely Mike ran a big race, going wire to wire, holding off #2 Off to the Beach at 12-1, for the win. This is another example of how you can identify value and the winner with PHW’s performance stats. Squirrely Mike was a 7-1 horse but had 2-1 fair value according to his SPD estimate and 1-1 fair value according to COMP!

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/244668/maximum-security-retired-to-ashford-stud

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/244656/authentic-retired-nothing-left-to-prove

Three-year-old and Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic at 4-1, was the winner of the $6 mil. Breeders Cup Classic at Keeneland on Saturday. The horse had the 2nd highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, after Maximum Security at 13.4% and was third highest according to COMP at 23.5%. Two of the three highest COMP horses in Authentic and Improbable at 7-2 finished first and second, while the mentioned long-shot in the preview, Global Campaign at 25-1, finished third. Taking a $0.50 tri-fecta box with the four horses that rated highest according to final speed in the simulation, which included Global Campaign, would have given you a winning ticket that paid $167.95 for a $12 wager. Finishing 5th, it appears that Maximum Security is no longer the horse he once was. He nor his trainer, Baffert, had any excuses in this race not to have done better.