By In race 10 in the opening day at Gulfstream today, a $20K claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds, there was an true mispricing opportunity with #7 King of Rock at 20-1. Even though the horse had a low Winning Percentage at 5.3%, King of Rock had a total win probability of 24.65% (3-1 fair value), thanks to having the highest winning SPD estimate at 46.5% as well as strong component estimates in E1, E2 and LP. The only other horse that showed any speed whatseover in the simulation was the favorite #9 French Reef at 4-5, who was an overlay at that price. In the race, King of Rock broke quickest from the gate, but French Reef soon led through the opening quarter with a time of 23.24. The horses ran side-by-side coming out of the far turn, before King of Rock edged French Reef by a nose at the wire. The horse paid $42.80 for the win, while the $2 exacta paid $140.40!
Pro-Handicap Analytics 