Month: February 2022

Today at Oaklawn is the $1 mil. G2 Rebel Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features morning line favorite Newgrange at 9/5, who is undefeated in three races after winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Jan. 29 with a time of 1:45 and 4. The only other graded stakes winners are Kavod in post one, who won the $150K Advent over 6f at the beginning of December and Dash Attack, winner of the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on Jan. 1 but who finished a distant 5^th in the Southwest. The Handicapwizard is favoring #2 Newgrange in this race, who appears to be a typical classic horse. In the simulation projections, he was the only horse that showed strength over E1, E2 and LP, while indicating first in final speed with a 42.8% win probability and first in winning percentage at 33.1%. Versus a total win probability of 29.97%, Newgrange is fairly valued at 9/5 on the M/L. Next is #9 Barber Road with a total win probability of 17.1% versus a 9/2 M/L, again fairly valued. Barber Road projects 2^nd in final speed at 33.1%, but is more than twice as risky as Newgrange with a Coefficient of Variance of 12.21%. Third is #1 Kavod, who will be on the pace today with dominant projections in E1 and E2 of 47.5% and 39.5%. But the horse faltered down the stretch in his last race in the Southwest, which was the same distance as today’s Rebel. #7 Ben Diesel, as the fourth selection, looks comparable to Kavod on paper, having strength in early speed but weak in late speed. This race should be a handicapper’s delight with long prices on horses like #8 Chasing Time at 8-1 on the M/L and #10 Ethereal Road at 12-1. Winning his last time out in an $80 OC at Oaklawn in mid January, there is a lot to like about Chasing Time, who is a son of Not This Time along with Epicenter—the winner of the Risen Star last Saturday. Despite his opening fractions being on the slow side, Chasing Time did not need to do more early on in his last race and turned it on when it counted down the stretch to finish with a 96 LP reading, only behind Ethereal Road overall, who had a 105 LP in his last. Trainer, Steve Asmussen, said of Chasing Time a few days ago that his horse has a lot of talent, albeit is on the youthful side, and has trained very impressively in his three works since the $80K OC at Oaklawn in mid January. On the other hand, Ethereal Road is a Secretariat type of horse, slow in the early going but with dominant late speed, projecting at 47% win probability against the field in LP. The question for Ethereal Road is whether he will be able to catch up to the field in time for his big move, which didn’t seem to be a problem in this last race, a $84K maiden claimer at Oaklawn at the end of January, when he won impressively by four lengths despite a sluggish start. In the final analysis, this race is a case where the speed figures and the math projections are not telling the whole story, although the model is always a good starting point. The handicapper needs to know when to deviate from the quantitative projections, when other factors stand out. The final selections are Newgrange, Barber Road, Kavod and Ben Diesel, which, except for Kavod, is the order in according to the M/L odds. However, while I am comfortable with Newgrange as a first selection, I believe either Chasing Time or Ethereal Road could have an upset today and I would be choosing those three horses for the exacta.   

Today at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans is the $400K Risen Star Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features three graded stakes winners, including Smile Happy, who won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in late November at Churchill, Slow Down Andy, winner of the Los Alamos Futurity in mid December, and Epicenter, who won the $100K Gun Runner Stakes at the Fairgrounds in December and who also placed second in the G3 Lecomte at the Fairgrounds in January. In this race the Handicap Wizard is favoring #1 Pappacap with a total win probability of 25.38%, which would make the horse slightly undervalued compared to its 4-1 M/L. Pappacap has the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 24.3% and the second highest win probability based on the simulation of final speed figures at 28.7%, while also projecting strongly in E1 and E2 at 32.6% and 38%. The program may be onto something here with Pappacap, who, coming out of post 1, is the speed in the race along with #5 Epicenter. Pappacap has the highest COMP figure at 43.5%, which is a calculation that adds to together the win probabilities from simulations of E1, E2 and LP figures against those of the other horses, and has relatively low risk or a Coefficient of Variance of 5.81%. Pappacap did not have a good trip in the Remsen, when the horse was uncharacteristically slow out of the gate and had to make up ground on the back stretch. I’m guessing it was Joe Bravo’s fault and not the horse’s that Pappacap was not more forwardly placed in that race, which is why Mark Casse made the change to Tyler Gaffalione for the Risen Star. The second selection is #10 Slow Down Andy with a total win probability of 21.65% versus the 4.5-1 M/L. The horse projects best in terms of final speed at 36.6% win probability after coming off a career best final speed figure of 101 at Los Alamos and is well rested after having raced last 70 days ago. One concern about Slow Down Andy is that he looked a little green in his last race by waving his head down the stretch in the Los Alamos. The third selection according to the program is #8 Smile Happy with a 18.73% total win probability. Smile Happy is lightly raced in having only two starts, but, as mentioned, won the Kentucky Jockey Club in his last start and was in good company in that race with White Abarrio, who won the Holy Bull at Gulfstream two weeks ago. The program’s selections are #1 Pappacap, #10 Slow Down Andy, #8 Smile Happy and #5 Epicenter. Personally, I am favoring Pappacap and Smile Happy to go one two or vice versa, while expecting #10 Slow Down Andy or #7 Zandon to come in third. Zandon had a good showing in the Remsen, but might have the same problem as Mo Donegal did in the Holy Bull by not showing enough early speed and closing too late.