Today at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans is the $400K Risen Star Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features three graded stakes winners, including Smile Happy, who won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in late November at Churchill, Slow Down Andy, winner of the Los Alamos Futurity in mid December, and Epicenter, who won the $100K Gun Runner Stakes at the Fairgrounds in December and who also placed second in the G3 Lecomte at the Fairgrounds in January. In this race the Handicap Wizard is favoring #1 Pappacap with a total win probability of 25.38%, which would make the horse slightly undervalued compared to its 4-1 M/L. Pappacap has the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 24.3% and the second highest win probability based on the simulation of final speed figures at 28.7%, while also projecting strongly in E1 and E2 at 32.6% and 38%. The program may be onto something here with Pappacap, who, coming out of post 1, is the speed in the race along with #5 Epicenter. Pappacap has the highest COMP figure at 43.5%, which is a calculation that adds to together the win probabilities from simulations of E1, E2 and LP figures against those of the other horses, and has relatively low risk or a Coefficient of Variance of 5.81%. Pappacap did not have a good trip in the Remsen, when the horse was uncharacteristically slow out of the gate and had to make up ground on the back stretch. I’m guessing it was Joe Bravo’s fault and not the horse’s that Pappacap was not more forwardly placed in that race, which is why Mark Casse made the change to Tyler Gaffalione for the Risen Star. The second selection is #10 Slow Down Andy with a total win probability of 21.65% versus the 4.5-1 M/L. The horse projects best in terms of final speed at 36.6% win probability after coming off a career best final speed figure of 101 at Los Alamos and is well rested after having raced last 70 days ago. One concern about Slow Down Andy is that he looked a little green in his last race by waving his head down the stretch in the Los Alamos. The third selection according to the program is #8 Smile Happy with a 18.73% total win probability. Smile Happy is lightly raced in having only two starts, but, as mentioned, won the Kentucky Jockey Club in his last start and was in good company in that race with White Abarrio, who won the Holy Bull at Gulfstream two weeks ago. The program’s selections are #1 Pappacap, #10 Slow Down Andy, #8 Smile Happy and #5 Epicenter. Personally, I am favoring Pappacap and Smile Happy to go one two or vice versa, while expecting #10 Slow Down Andy or #7 Zandon to come in third. Zandon had a good showing in the Remsen, but might have the same problem as Mo Donegal did in the Holy Bull by not showing enough early speed and closing too late.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 