Today there was a good example at Parx of a race where a horse was presented as a first selection that was also an underlay—an ideal situation for a handicapper. It was a $35K optional claiming race, run at 7f on the dirt for three-year olds filies and mares. The first selection was #1 Philadelphia Belle with a total win probability of 32.87% versus final odds of 3-1. The horse projected first in final speed at 41.2% win probability relative to a CV value of 11.46% (so the horse had a little higher than average risk), while projecting strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 74.8% and 64.7%, for which it earned a FIT2 checkmark. According to those metrics, the horse had a fair value of less than 1 for a 7f race. The horse’s COMP value was also high at 62.0% win probability, again translating to a fair value of less than 1 in odds. As an underlay, the horse had a positive expected Return on Investment of 31%. Though not being extraordinarily high it was completely fine as as a profitable wage selection. In the race, Philadelphia Belle broke well from the gate to take an early lead and coasted the rest of the way, winning by a length in the end over the #7 Precious at 5-2, who had the highest win percentage in the field at 29.4%. Philadelphia Belle paid $8 for the win. The race illustrates the value of the Handicapwizard as a selection and valuation tool. In reality it does not often happen that the first selection will be offered as an underlay, as favorites tend to be overbet by the public. Here the pool overvalued the #2 horse, Peyton Elizabeth at 7-5, who finished third.
On Saturday at the Fair Grounds is the $1 million G2 Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi on the dirt for three-year olds. The fields features Epicenter, winner of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds in February, Call Me Midnight, who won the Lecomte over Epicenter at the Fairgrounds in January, and Zosos, who is undefeated in two starts after winning a $100K optional claiming race over 1 1/16 mi at Oaklawn in mid February. The Handicapwizard is favoring #6 Epicenter with a total win probability of 36.01%, who is a little expensive at 7-5 on the morning line. Epicenter is the speed and class in this race, projecting first in SPD, E1 and E2, while having the highest win percentage in the field at 28.0%. Second is #3 Call Me Midnight with a total win probability of 16.65%, who projects second in final speed at 28.2% win probability and second in LP at 30.9%. In contrast to Epicenter, who ran last a month ago, Call Me Midnight comes into the race well rested after a two-month layoff. Third is #2 Zosos with a 13.16% total win probability. He has the third highest winning percentage at 14.8%, which is understated from having only two starts. Fourth is #9 Rattle and Roll with a 12.73% total win probability, who regressed in his last race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, when he finished 6th by seven lengths. On the flip side, the horse had a bullet work on Mar. 19 at Gulfstream, in which he went over 5f in 0:58 seconds. Despite his disappointing showing in the Fountain of Youth, when he went off at about 5-1, Brian Hernandez remains in the saddle. The fourth selection is #2 Zosos with a 13.16% total win probability. He’s the greenest horse in the field with only two starts, but is undefeated after winning a $100K optional claiming race at Oaklawn over 1 1/16 mi. in his last start in mid February. Florent Jeroux rides Zosos and Brad Cox is the trainer. In the final analysis, Epicenter looks to be the most impressive horse on paper, but will likely face tough challenges from Call Me Midnight, who bested him by a head in the Lecomte in January, and from Zosos, who projects first in LP at 37.4%. Zosos‘ 94 final speed fig in the his last race at Oaklawn is a little deceiving because of the slow pace in that race. When the horse cleared the far turn, Zosos sprinted right on cue, leaving the field in the dust as a winner by 10 lengths. While having strong early speed, Epicenter could be vulnerable down the stretch to the closers, Call Me Midnight and Zosos, which Call Me Midnight already proved in the Lecomte. Therefore, Epicenter does not appear to be a strong favorite in this spot and would be expensive at less than 2-1, even though he is the least risky of the favorites. Zosos made a big improvement from his 1st to his second race, jumping from 76 to 94 in terms of final speed figures. What is surprising about the horse is his strength in late speed, even though he has the pedigree of a sprinter on his sire’s side as a son of Munnings and grandson of Speighstown. One has to go back to Zosos’ great grandfather on his dam’s side in Holy Bull to find any long-distance pedigree, who was a multiple G1 winner, including winner of the Florida Derby. Regarding Rattle N Roll, his regression in the Fountain of Youth as a 6th place finisher is concerning, but this will be his second start back after the long layoff. The final selections are #6 Epicenter, #3 Call Me Midnight, #2 Zosos and #9 Rattle N Roll.
The Handicapwizard had a good result today in the $200K Whitmore Stakes at Oaklawn, run at 6f on the dirt for four-year olds and up. The program’s first selection, Bob’s Edge, with a total win probability of 19.49% versus final odds of 5-2, won in exciting fashion with a late move in the center of the track, besting #7 Tulane Tryst who also came up late. Bob’s Edge paid $7.60 for the win.
The Handicap Wizard had a nice result today in the 9th race at Oaklawn, a $20K claiming race for fillies and mares three-years old and up. #8 Uncle Mo’s Cat was the first selection with a total win probability of 24.7% versus final odds of 9-5. The horse projected 1st in final speed at 53.7% and had relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.7%. The progam’s second selection was #5 Alpine Ghost at 39-1 with a total win probability of 14.61%. The third selection was #10 Mo Betta at 9-1 with a total win probability of 13.03%, thanks to having the highest winning percentage in the field at 24.4%. As it turned out, Uncle Mo’s Cat was a winner by two lengths over #10 Mo Better, who came up along the rail for 2nd to beat #1 Strike at Beat at 7-2. Uncle Mo’s Cat paid $5.60 to win, while a $1 ex. box with 8, 5, 10 paid $24.80. This race shows the value of the Handicap Wizard’s approach of using both simulation and historical performance, that Mo Better’s high winning percentage factored heavily to make it a 3rd selection, even though the horse had only a 3.9% win probability according to the final speed projection in the simulation.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 