On Saturday at Gulfstream s the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year-olds. The field features #2 Simplification, the runner-up in the Holy Bull to White Abbarrio, #6 Rattle N Roll, who was the Breeders Futurity winner last Oct. at Keeneland, and #8 Emmanuel, who is undefeated in two starts. With thirteen horses running and none of them receiving a win probability higher than 14% (around 6-1 odds equivalent), the Fountain of Youth looks to be a competitive race. The Handicapwizard is favoring Simplification, who has a total win probability of 14.07% versus the M/L of 5-2, which would be too short of a price for this horse. Simplication projects 1st in final speed at 31.7% win probability according to the simulation, though the horse does have some risk with a Coefficient of Variance 12.65%. Generally, any CV value above 10% is on the riskier side. After a poor start in the Holy Bull, Simplification rallied to get 2nd behind White Abarrio, who went wire to wire in that race. Next is #5 Dean Delivers with a total win probability of 13.66%, who came in 2nd in the Swale over 7 furlongs at Gulfstream in early Feb. The horse is undervalued at 15-1 on the M/L, even though the horse projects 2nd in final speed at 29.6% win probability and has lower risk than Simplification with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.2%. Third is #10 Giant Game with a total win probability of 13.07%, who is a value play at 15-1 on the M/L. Giant Game has the highest winning percentage in the field at 19.8%, but finished a distant 8th in his last start in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. On the flip side, the horse appears to be training well after running 5 furlongs in 59 seconds at Gulfstream on Feb. 29. The horse has the 2nd highest overall final speed figure in the field at 99, which he recorded while coming in 3rd in the G1 BC Juvenile at Del Mar in early Nov. Keep in mind that Giant Game was purchased for $500K, the highest amount of any of the horses in the field, and is a son of Giant’s Causeway, who was a dominant turf horse in England during his career. The fourth selection is #8 Emmanuel with an 11.64% total win probability. As mentioned, Emmanuel is undefeated in two starts and projects 1st in LP at 54.8% win probability, which justifies the horse’s 3-1 price on the M/L. In the final analysis, it does not appear that there will be much pace in this race, with none of the horses having dominant early speed. This should bode well for # 8 Emmanuel as well as #6 Rattle N Roll and #3 Howling Time. Rattle and Roll has done nothing wrong in his last two starts, winning a $120K maiden claiming race two back and the Breeders Futurity last time out at Churchhill, when he made a four wide move right on cue around the far turn and went on to win by four lengths. Son of Not This Time, Howling Time may be a sleeper in this race, who despite disappointing in the Holy Bull with a 5th place finish, won the S200K Street Sense at 1 1/16 mi. as a two-year old last Halloween at Churchill. The program selections are #2 Simplication, #5 Dean Delivers, #10 Giant Game, and #8 Emmanuel. Personally, I see this race being close between Simplication, Emmanuel and Rattle N Roll, where I like Rattle N Roll the best out of the three because of his tactical speed and the way the horse responded around the far turn in the Breeders Futurity. The horse has also trained well, recording a time of 0:58 over 5f on Feb. 26 at Gulfstream. Emmanuel to me seems untested, benefiting from a slow pace in his last race, when he’s in deeper waters here in the Fountain of Youth. If Simplification gets out to an early lead, he will be tough to beat in this spot. It’s interesting that Dean Delivers is the model’s second selection, but has not gone farther than 7f.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 