Preview of the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Mar. 5, 2022

Today at Aqueduct is the $300K Gotham at Aqueduct, run at 1 mile on the dirt for three year olds. The race features only two graded stakes winners and otherwise is a very green field. The odds favorite is Morello at 3-1 on the M/L, who comes in undefeated in two starts after winning the $100K Jimmy Winkfield over 7f at Aqueduct on Feb. 6. The other stakes winner is Rockefeller, winner of the G3 Nashua at Belmont over 1 mi. in early November and was runner up to Newgrange in the Sham at Santa Anita in January. The Handicapwizard is favoring #5 Dean’s List with a total win probability of 25.96% compared to 7-2 on the M/L, where is fair value is about 3-1. The horse will undoubtedly be the pace in the race with strong E1 and E2 projections of 69.9% and 37.2% in the simulation, while ranking second in SPD at 31.2% win probability. The horse also has a high COMP value of 55.1% compared to a low risk or Coefficient of Variance of only 2.98%. Second is #4 Fromanothamutha at 18.02% total win probability. The horse projects first in final speed at 39.5% while having the top final speed figure in the field at 105, which he recorded in breaking his maiden in his last start over 7f at Aqueduct in Jan. He is also riskier with a Coefficient of Variance of 13.62%. Third is Morello with a 10.12% win probability but has the highest winning person, adjusted for stakes, at 18.4% following his win in the Jimmy Winfield. Fourth is Rockefeller with a 9.98% total win probability. In the final analysis, I think that the Handicap Wizard is right with its top four selections and the final order will be a combination of these. After needing five races to find his form, I don’t see a reason to doubt Fromanothamutha’s ability to win the Gotham based on his maiden winning performance in mid January. The horse appears to be a true Kentucky Derby contender, where his 6-1 price on the M/L would be a gift. He will have to come off the pace to defeat Dean’s List, but I believe will prevail down the stretch. Morello and Rockefeller project similarly as the weakest of the four. The selections are #5 Dean’s List, #4 Fromanothamutha, #9 Morello and #10 Rockefeller. I personally see it going Fromanothamutha 1st., #5 Dean’s List 2nd., #10 Rockefeller, 3rd. and #9 Morello 4th.