Tampa Bay Derby Preview, Sat., Mar. 12

Today at Tampa Bay is the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features Classic Causeway, winner of the Sam F. Davis at Tampa in mid February, Shipsensational, who was the runner-up in the Sam F. Davis and before that won a couple graded races at Belmont last fall, including the $250K Sleepy Hollow over 1 mi. There is also Major General, winner of the Iroquis at Churchill last September and Money Supply, who broke his maiden in one start at Tampa in February. The Handicapwizard is favoring #4 Classic Causeway with a total win probability of 24.62%, which would make him an overlay at 8-5 on M/L. Nevertheless, there are things to like about this horse, including projecting strongly in E1 and E2 as well as having the second highest final speed estimate at 34.4% and the highest COMP value at 48.9%, when no one else is even close. At the same time, he has low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4.29%. Next is #9 Shipsensational, who has a total win probability of 23.54% versus 5-1 on the M/L, while projecting 1^st in final speed at 48.7%. However, he is riskier with a CV value of 10.39% and took a step back in form with his last start. Third is #5 Giant Game with a total win probability of 14.21%, who would be undervalued compared to 10-1 on the M/L. Giant Game projects similarly to Classic Causeway in E1 and E2 and has the second highest win percentage at 18.8%. The horse turned in a disappointing effect in his last start in the Holy Bull, when he finished eighth by 24 lengths. However, it has come to light since that race that the horse suffered a throat problem in a displaced palate, which has since been corrected. In his two most recent works, Giant Game ran 5f in 0:59, showing that the horse has been training consistently well. Tied for fourth in the selections are #7 Strike Hard with a 9.14% total win probability and #8 Major General at 9.05%. Major General has the highest win percentage in the field at 19.2% due to his win in the Iroquis at Churchill. In the final analysis, if he runs like he did in the Sam. F. Davis by getting out to the lead and holding it, this race is Classic Causeway’s to win. It will be interesting to see whether Shipsensational will be more forwardly placed to challenge Classic Causeway, who did not get the best trip in the Sam F. Davis, getting stuck in traffic around the far turn, before having to make a five wide move down the stretch to come up for second. Shipsensational does project first in LP at 39.3% win probability, so it’s a matter of whether he can use that late energy earlier on to get into a closer stalking position against Classic Causeway. If Giant Game’s throat problem was temporary, he may be the overlooked horse in this race, because he had been progressing nicely before his regression in the Holy Bull. Regarding Major General, the horse has not been training stellar and for that reason should not be a factor in this race that will be all about pace. On the other hand, Happy Boy Rocket did turn in a nice effort in his maiden win at Gulfstream at the end of January and may pose a challenge to the expected leaders down the stretch. The final selections are Classic Causeway 1^st, Shipsensational 2^nd, Giant Game 3^rd and Strike Hard 4^th.