The Handicap Wizard had a nice result today in the 9th race at Oaklawn, a $20K claiming race for fillies and mares three-years old and up. #8 Uncle Mo’s Cat was the first selection with a total win probability of 24.7% versus final odds of 9-5. The horse projected 1st in final speed at 53.7% and had relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.7%. The progam’s second selection was #5 Alpine Ghost at 39-1 with a total win probability of 14.61%. The third selection was #10 Mo Betta at 9-1 with a total win probability of 13.03%, thanks to having the highest winning percentage in the field at 24.4%. As it turned out, Uncle Mo’s Cat was a winner by two lengths over #10 Mo Better, who came up along the rail for 2nd to beat #1 Strike at Beat at 7-2. Uncle Mo’s Cat paid $5.60 to win, while a $1 ex. box with 8, 5, 10 paid $24.80. This race shows the value of the Handicap Wizard’s approach of using both simulation and historical performance, that Mo Better’s high winning percentage factored heavily to make it a 3rd selection, even though the horse had only a 3.9% win probability according to the final speed projection in the simulation.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 