On Saturday at the Fair Grounds is the $1 million G2 Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi on the dirt for three-year olds. The fields features Epicenter, winner of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds in February, Call Me Midnight, who won the Lecomte over Epicenter at the Fairgrounds in January, and Zosos, who is undefeated in two starts after winning a $100K optional claiming race over 1 1/16 mi at Oaklawn in mid February. The Handicapwizard is favoring #6 Epicenter with a total win probability of 36.01%, who is a little expensive at 7-5 on the morning line. Epicenter is the speed and class in this race, projecting first in SPD, E1 and E2, while having the highest win percentage in the field at 28.0%. Second is #3 Call Me Midnight with a total win probability of 16.65%, who projects second in final speed at 28.2% win probability and second in LP at 30.9%. In contrast to Epicenter, who ran last a month ago, Call Me Midnight comes into the race well rested after a two-month layoff. Third is #2 Zosos with a 13.16% total win probability. He has the third highest winning percentage at 14.8%, which is understated from having only two starts. Fourth is #9 Rattle and Roll with a 12.73% total win probability, who regressed in his last race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, when he finished 6th by seven lengths. On the flip side, the horse had a bullet work on Mar. 19 at Gulfstream, in which he went over 5f in 0:58 seconds. Despite his disappointing showing in the Fountain of Youth, when he went off at about 5-1, Brian Hernandez remains in the saddle. The fourth selection is #2 Zosos with a 13.16% total win probability. He’s the greenest horse in the field with only two starts, but is undefeated after winning a $100K optional claiming race at Oaklawn over 1 1/16 mi. in his last start in mid February. Florent Jeroux rides Zosos and Brad Cox is the trainer. In the final analysis, Epicenter looks to be the most impressive horse on paper, but will likely face tough challenges from Call Me Midnight, who bested him by a head in the Lecomte in January, and from Zosos, who projects first in LP at 37.4%. Zosos‘ 94 final speed fig in the his last race at Oaklawn is a little deceiving because of the slow pace in that race. When the horse cleared the far turn, Zosos sprinted right on cue, leaving the field in the dust as a winner by 10 lengths. While having strong early speed, Epicenter could be vulnerable down the stretch to the closers, Call Me Midnight and Zosos, which Call Me Midnight already proved in the Lecomte. Therefore, Epicenter does not appear to be a strong favorite in this spot and would be expensive at less than 2-1, even though he is the least risky of the favorites. Zosos made a big improvement from his 1st to his second race, jumping from 76 to 94 in terms of final speed figures. What is surprising about the horse is his strength in late speed, even though he has the pedigree of a sprinter on his sire’s side as a son of Munnings and grandson of Speighstown. One has to go back to Zosos’ great grandfather on his dam’s side in Holy Bull to find any long-distance pedigree, who was a multiple G1 winner, including winner of the Florida Derby. Regarding Rattle N Roll, his regression in the Fountain of Youth as a 6th place finisher is concerning, but this will be his second start back after the long layoff. The final selections are #6 Epicenter, #3 Call Me Midnight, #2 Zosos and #9 Rattle N Roll.
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