Today there was a good example at Parx of a race where a horse was presented as a first selection that was also an underlay—an ideal situation for a handicapper. It was a $35K optional claiming race, run at 7f on the dirt for three-year olds filies and mares. The first selection was #1 Philadelphia Belle with a total win probability of 32.87% versus final odds of 3-1. The horse projected first in final speed at 41.2% win probability relative to a CV value of 11.46% (so the horse had a little higher than average risk), while projecting strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 74.8% and 64.7%, for which it earned a FIT2 checkmark. According to those metrics, the horse had a fair value of less than 1 for a 7f race. The horse’s COMP value was also high at 62.0% win probability, again translating to a fair value of less than 1 in odds. As an underlay, the horse had a positive expected Return on Investment of 31%. Though not being extraordinarily high it was completely fine as as a profitable wage selection. In the race, Philadelphia Belle broke well from the gate to take an early lead and coasted the rest of the way, winning by a length in the end over the #7 Precious at 5-2, who had the highest win percentage in the field at 29.4%. Philadelphia Belle paid $8 for the win. The race illustrates the value of the Handicapwizard as a selection and valuation tool. In reality it does not often happen that the first selection will be offered as an underlay, as favorites tend to be overbet by the public. Here the pool overvalued the #2 horse, Peyton Elizabeth at 7-5, who finished third.
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