Month: March 2022

Today at Tampa Bay is the $400K G2 Tampa Bay Derby, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features Classic Causeway, winner of the Sam F. Davis at Tampa in mid February, Shipsensational, who was the runner-up in the Sam F. Davis and before that won a couple graded races at Belmont last fall, including the $250K Sleepy Hollow over 1 mi. There is also Major General, winner of the Iroquis at Churchill last September and Money Supply, who broke his maiden in one start at Tampa in February. The Handicapwizard is favoring #4 Classic Causeway with a total win probability of 24.62%, which would make him an overlay at 8-5 on M/L. Nevertheless, there are things to like about this horse, including projecting strongly in E1 and E2 as well as having the second highest final speed estimate at 34.4% and the highest COMP value at 48.9%, when no one else is even close. At the same time, he has low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4.29%. Next is #9 Shipsensational, who has a total win probability of 23.54% versus 5-1 on the M/L, while projecting 1^st in final speed at 48.7%. However, he is riskier with a CV value of 10.39% and took a step back in form with his last start. Third is #5 Giant Game with a total win probability of 14.21%, who would be undervalued compared to 10-1 on the M/L. Giant Game projects similarly to Classic Causeway in E1 and E2 and has the second highest win percentage at 18.8%. The horse turned in a disappointing effect in his last start in the Holy Bull, when he finished eighth by 24 lengths. However, it has come to light since that race that the horse suffered a throat problem in a displaced palate, which has since been corrected. In his two most recent works, Giant Game ran 5f in 0:59, showing that the horse has been training consistently well. Tied for fourth in the selections are #7 Strike Hard with a 9.14% total win probability and #8 Major General at 9.05%. Major General has the highest win percentage in the field at 19.2% due to his win in the Iroquis at Churchill. In the final analysis, if he runs like he did in the Sam. F. Davis by getting out to the lead and holding it, this race is Classic Causeway’s to win. It will be interesting to see whether Shipsensational will be more forwardly placed to challenge Classic Causeway, who did not get the best trip in the Sam F. Davis, getting stuck in traffic around the far turn, before having to make a five wide move down the stretch to come up for second. Shipsensational does project first in LP at 39.3% win probability, so it’s a matter of whether he can use that late energy earlier on to get into a closer stalking position against Classic Causeway. If Giant Game’s throat problem was temporary, he may be the overlooked horse in this race, because he had been progressing nicely before his regression in the Holy Bull. Regarding Major General, the horse has not been training stellar and for that reason should not be a factor in this race that will be all about pace. On the other hand, Happy Boy Rocket did turn in a nice effort in his maiden win at Gulfstream at the end of January and may pose a challenge to the expected leaders down the stretch. The final selections are Classic Causeway 1^st, Shipsensational 2^nd, Giant Game 3^rd and Strike Hard 4^th.

The Handicapwizard had good results today in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and in the Gotham at Aqueduct. In the FOY the program’s first selection, Simplication, won at 5-2. And in the Gotham, the program’s 1st selection, Dean’s List, came in second, while its 3rd selection, Morello, came in 1st. Scroll down to see the previews of those races. Another notable result was with the PHW Turf program in the 5th race at Santa Anita, the $200K G2 Bueno Vista, where the program predicted the tri-fecta correctly with its top three selections in #5 Leggs Gallore, #10 Going to Vegas and #1 Closing Remarks. The $0.50 trifecta paid $31.75.

Today at Aqueduct is the $300K Gotham at Aqueduct, run at 1 mile on the dirt for three year olds. The race features only two graded stakes winners and otherwise is a very green field. The odds favorite is Morello at 3-1 on the M/L, who comes in undefeated in two starts after winning the $100K Jimmy Winkfield over 7f at Aqueduct on Feb. 6. The other stakes winner is Rockefeller, winner of the G3 Nashua at Belmont over 1 mi. in early November and was runner up to Newgrange in the Sham at Santa Anita in January. The Handicapwizard is favoring #5 Dean’s List with a total win probability of 25.96% compared to 7-2 on the M/L, where is fair value is about 3-1. The horse will undoubtedly be the pace in the race with strong E1 and E2 projections of 69.9% and 37.2% in the simulation, while ranking second in SPD at 31.2% win probability. The horse also has a high COMP value of 55.1% compared to a low risk or Coefficient of Variance of only 2.98%. Second is #4 Fromanothamutha at 18.02% total win probability. The horse projects first in final speed at 39.5% while having the top final speed figure in the field at 105, which he recorded in breaking his maiden in his last start over 7f at Aqueduct in Jan. He is also riskier with a Coefficient of Variance of 13.62%. Third is Morello with a 10.12% win probability but has the highest winning person, adjusted for stakes, at 18.4% following his win in the Jimmy Winfield. Fourth is Rockefeller with a 9.98% total win probability. In the final analysis, I think that the Handicap Wizard is right with its top four selections and the final order will be a combination of these. After needing five races to find his form, I don’t see a reason to doubt Fromanothamutha’s ability to win the Gotham based on his maiden winning performance in mid January. The horse appears to be a true Kentucky Derby contender, where his 6-1 price on the M/L would be a gift. He will have to come off the pace to defeat Dean’s List, but I believe will prevail down the stretch. Morello and Rockefeller project similarly as the weakest of the four. The selections are #5 Dean’s List, #4 Fromanothamutha, #9 Morello and #10 Rockefeller. I personally see it going Fromanothamutha 1st., #5 Dean’s List 2nd., #10 Rockefeller, 3rd. and #9 Morello 4th.

      

On Saturday at Gulfstream s the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year-olds. The field features #2 Simplification, the runner-up in the Holy Bull to White Abbarrio, #6 Rattle N Roll, who was the Breeders Futurity winner last Oct. at Keeneland, and #8 Emmanuel, who is undefeated in two starts. With thirteen horses running and none of them receiving a win probability higher than 14% (around 6-1 odds equivalent), the Fountain of Youth looks to be a competitive race. The Handicapwizard is favoring Simplification, who has a total win probability of 14.07% versus the M/L of 5-2, which would be too short of a price for this horse. Simplication projects 1^st in final speed at 31.7% win probability according to the simulation, though the horse does have some risk with a Coefficient of Variance 12.65%. Generally, any CV value above 10% is on the riskier side. After a poor start in the Holy Bull, Simplification rallied to get 2^nd behind White Abarrio, who went wire to wire in that race. Next is #5 Dean Delivers with a total win probability of 13.66%, who came in 2^nd in the Swale over 7 furlongs at Gulfstream in early Feb. The horse is undervalued at 15-1 on the M/L, even though the horse projects 2^nd in final speed at 29.6% win probability and has lower risk than Simplification with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.2%. Third is #10 Giant Game with a total win probability of 13.07%, who is a value play at 15-1 on the M/L. Giant Game has the highest winning percentage in the field at 19.8%, but finished a distant 8^th in his last start in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. On the flip side, the horse appears to be training well after running 5 furlongs in 59 seconds at Gulfstream on Feb. 29. The horse has the 2^nd highest overall final speed figure in the field at 99, which he recorded while coming in 3^rd in the G1 BC Juvenile at Del Mar in early Nov. Keep in mind that Giant Game was purchased for $500K, the highest amount of any of the horses in the field, and is a son of Giant’s Causeway, who was a dominant turf horse in England during his career. The fourth selection is #8 Emmanuel with an 11.64% total win probability. As mentioned, Emmanuel is undefeated in two starts and projects 1^st in LP at 54.8% win probability, which justifies the horse’s 3-1 price on the M/L. In the final analysis, it does not appear that there will be much pace in this race, with none of the horses having dominant early speed. This should bode well for # 8 Emmanuel as well as #6 Rattle N Roll and #3 Howling Time. Rattle and Roll has done nothing wrong in his last two starts, winning a $120K maiden claiming race two back and the Breeders Futurity last time out at Churchhill, when he made a four wide move right on cue around the far turn and went on to win by four lengths. Son of Not This Time, Howling Time may be a sleeper in this race, who despite disappointing in the Holy Bull with a 5^th place finish, won the S200K Street Sense at 1 1/16 mi. as a two-year old last Halloween at Churchill. The program selections are #2 Simplication, #5 Dean Delivers, #10 Giant Game, and #8 Emmanuel. Personally, I see this race being close between Simplication, Emmanuel and Rattle N Roll, where I like Rattle N Roll the best out of the three because of his tactical speed and the way the horse responded around the far turn in the Breeders Futurity. The horse has also trained well, recording a time of 0:58 over 5f on Feb. 26 at Gulfstream. Emmanuel to me seems untested, benefiting from a slow pace in his last race, when he’s in deeper waters here in the Fountain of Youth. If Simplification gets out to an early lead, he will be tough to beat in this spot. It’s interesting that Dean Delivers is the model’s second selection, but has not gone farther than 7f.