Month: April 2022

Today at Aqueduct is the $750K G2 Wood Memorial, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features several graded stakes winners, including Morello, who won the Gotham at Aqueduct in March by four lengths. Others are Mo Donegal, winner of the Remsen at Aqueduct in Dec., as well as Early Voting, winner of the Withers at Aqueduct in early Feb., and Barese, who like Morello is undefeated in three starts after winning the Gander at Aqueduct in Feb. and the Rego Park at Aqueduct in January. The Handicapwizard has #5 Morello as its first selection with a total win probability of 29.52% versus 7-5 on the morning line. Morello projects first in final speed at 54.4% and has the second highest win percentage at 22.7% after Early Voting at 23.5%. Second is #3 Early Voting with a 17.87% total win probability, who projects well in E1 and E2 at 50.3% and 30.5%, while having a COMP value of 25.3%. Third is #1 Mo Donegal at 16.89% total win probability, who projects third in final speed at 14.4% but first in LP at 56.2%, for which he has a FIT2 checkmark along with Morello. Fourth is #8 Barese with a 10.93% total win probability, who projects second in final speed at 16.5%. In the final analysis, Morello does appear to be a solid first selection, who is also undefeated in three starts. The one question about Morello is how well he will be able to handle the distance, given that the longest he has gone is 1 mi. in the Gotham, which he won by four lengths. Projecting dominantly in LP, Mo Donegal should pose a challenge down the stretch along with Golden Code, who ranks second in LP at 22.8% while having progressed in each of his three starts. It will be interesting to see how Early Voting does on the pace and whether he can steal the race from Morello, if left unchallenged early on. It’s worth nothing that Early Noting projects nearly as well as Morello in COMP at 25.3%. The final selections are #5 Morello, #3 Early Voting, #1 Mo Donegal and #8 Barese.    

Today at Keeneland is the $1 mil. G1 Blue Grass Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race has a field of twelve horses and features Smile Happy, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchhill in Nov. and runner up in the Risen Star at Oaklawn, and Ethereal Rd., who came in second in the Rebel at Oaklawn behind Un Ojo. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Smile Happy in this race with a total win probability of 24.58%, who projects 1^st in final speed at 42.6% and has the highest win percentage at 23.6%. Second is #4 Zandon with a 14.73% total win probability. While projecting speed across E1, E2 and LP, including ranking second in LP with 28.4% win probability, Zandon is expensive at 5-2 on the money line, when the horse’s fair value is closer to 5-1. Third is #9 Rattle N Roll with a 11.27% total win probability, who projects 2^nd in final speed at 15.8%. Fourth is #8 Ethereal Rd. with 11.26% total win probability. Ethereal Rd. projects first in LP at 45.1% and has value at 20-1 on the morning line. In the final analysis, Smile Happy is in the driver’s seat as being both the class and projecting best in terms of final speed, but there is a reason for concern because of his mediocre COMP value at 19%, indicating that his speed components in the aggregate are not particularly strong compared to the other horses. On that basis, his fair value is in the 4-1 range. In fact, the second selection, Zandon, projects first in COMP at 22.8% and #6 Emmanuel is 2nd at 19.2%, who ranks third on the money line. Emmanuel disappointed in his last race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, where he finished 4^th, and otherwise has a low win percentage at only 4.7%. Considering that none of the horses are projecting higher than 22% in COMP, I believe this race is wide open, where not only the favorite Smile Happy is vulnerable, but also long shots like #2 Fenwick and #5 Volcanic have chances to hit the board and possibly win. The final selections are #10 Smile Happy, #4 Zandon, #9 Rattle N Roll and #8 Ethereal Rd.

Here are the program’s projections for today’s $1.25 mil. Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds.

Today at Gulfstream is the $1,000,000 G1 Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features several graded stakes winners, including Simplification, who won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, Classic Causeway, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis, and White Abbario, winner of the Holy Bull at Gulfstream in Feb. This appears to be an open and evenly matched race, with none of the horses receiving win probabilities higher than 17%. The program’s first selection is #5 Pappacap, who is in this position not because of what the horse has done recently but more because of what it has done in the past. Pappacap placed second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keenland last Nov, which was a $2 mil race, explaining why the horse has the second highest win percentage at 21.3%. However, Pappacap disappointed most recently with an 8^th place finish in the Risen Star in Feb. after getting 3^rd in the LeComte in Jan. The model is also factoring in his strong projections in E1 and E2 with estimates of 40.6% and 39.5%. On the other hand, the horse projects little or nothing in final speed and in LP against the field, which seems a problem for the distance of this race at 1 1/8 mi. Pappacap’s first selection status is due more to data anomalies than to any actual strength around final speed and recent winning form, so the horse is effectively a toss. The second selection is #3 Simplification with a total win probability of 15.56% versus 5-2 on the M/L, who would be expensive at that price. Simplification projects first in SPD at 32.2% compared to higher than average risk with a 11.3% Coefficient of Variance. Simplification has hit the board in his last five out of six starts. Third is #7 White Abarrio with a total win probability of 15.26% versus 3-1 on the M/L. White Abarrio projects decently across E1, E2 and LP and has the highest COMP value in the field at 29.5%, indicating strength in numbers according to the simulation. Fourth is #2 Classic Causeway with a 11.78% total win probability, who has the highest WP in the field at 22.4% after winning the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis. In the final analysis, the order of the selections appears more legit after excluding Pappacap. At the 1 1/8 mi. distance late speed should factor in this race, favoring White Abarrio and new shooter, #6 Charge It, who projects 1^st in LP at 40.1% after posting a 107 LP in his maiden win in his second start in Feb. It’s worth noting that Classic Causeway and White Abarrio recorded the fastest times over 1 1/16 mi. at 1:42, while Charge It had a time of 1:35 for 1 mile. Throwing out #5 Pappacap, the selections are #3 Simplification, #7 White Abarrio, #2 Classic Causeway and #6 Charge it.        

The Handicapwizard had an excellent result today in the 9th race at Gulfstream, a $16K allowance race at 1m 70y for four-year olds. The program had the correct order of the tri- and super-fectas with #9 Lamplighter Jack at 7-2, #3 Conglomerate at 4-1, #1 Yamato at 3-2 and #4 Kitten’s Spa at 7-2. The $0.50 trifecta paid $42.95 while the $.10 superfecta paid $23.66.