Day: April 2, 2022

Here are the program’s projections for today’s $1.25 mil. Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds.

Today at Gulfstream is the $1,000,000 G1 Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features several graded stakes winners, including Simplification, who won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, Classic Causeway, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis, and White Abbario, winner of the Holy Bull at Gulfstream in Feb. This appears to be an open and evenly matched race, with none of the horses receiving win probabilities higher than 17%. The program’s first selection is #5 Pappacap, who is in this position not because of what the horse has done recently but more because of what it has done in the past. Pappacap placed second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keenland last Nov, which was a $2 mil race, explaining why the horse has the second highest win percentage at 21.3%. However, Pappacap disappointed most recently with an 8^th place finish in the Risen Star in Feb. after getting 3^rd in the LeComte in Jan. The model is also factoring in his strong projections in E1 and E2 with estimates of 40.6% and 39.5%. On the other hand, the horse projects little or nothing in final speed and in LP against the field, which seems a problem for the distance of this race at 1 1/8 mi. Pappacap’s first selection status is due more to data anomalies than to any actual strength around final speed and recent winning form, so the horse is effectively a toss. The second selection is #3 Simplification with a total win probability of 15.56% versus 5-2 on the M/L, who would be expensive at that price. Simplification projects first in SPD at 32.2% compared to higher than average risk with a 11.3% Coefficient of Variance. Simplification has hit the board in his last five out of six starts. Third is #7 White Abarrio with a total win probability of 15.26% versus 3-1 on the M/L. White Abarrio projects decently across E1, E2 and LP and has the highest COMP value in the field at 29.5%, indicating strength in numbers according to the simulation. Fourth is #2 Classic Causeway with a 11.78% total win probability, who has the highest WP in the field at 22.4% after winning the Tampa Bay Derby and Sam F. Davis. In the final analysis, the order of the selections appears more legit after excluding Pappacap. At the 1 1/8 mi. distance late speed should factor in this race, favoring White Abarrio and new shooter, #6 Charge It, who projects 1^st in LP at 40.1% after posting a 107 LP in his maiden win in his second start in Feb. It’s worth noting that Classic Causeway and White Abarrio recorded the fastest times over 1 1/16 mi. at 1:42, while Charge It had a time of 1:35 for 1 mile. Throwing out #5 Pappacap, the selections are #3 Simplification, #7 White Abarrio, #2 Classic Causeway and #6 Charge it.