Day: April 9, 2022

Today at Aqueduct is the $750K G2 Wood Memorial, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features several graded stakes winners, including Morello, who won the Gotham at Aqueduct in March by four lengths. Others are Mo Donegal, winner of the Remsen at Aqueduct in Dec., as well as Early Voting, winner of the Withers at Aqueduct in early Feb., and Barese, who like Morello is undefeated in three starts after winning the Gander at Aqueduct in Feb. and the Rego Park at Aqueduct in January. The Handicapwizard has #5 Morello as its first selection with a total win probability of 29.52% versus 7-5 on the morning line. Morello projects first in final speed at 54.4% and has the second highest win percentage at 22.7% after Early Voting at 23.5%. Second is #3 Early Voting with a 17.87% total win probability, who projects well in E1 and E2 at 50.3% and 30.5%, while having a COMP value of 25.3%. Third is #1 Mo Donegal at 16.89% total win probability, who projects third in final speed at 14.4% but first in LP at 56.2%, for which he has a FIT2 checkmark along with Morello. Fourth is #8 Barese with a 10.93% total win probability, who projects second in final speed at 16.5%. In the final analysis, Morello does appear to be a solid first selection, who is also undefeated in three starts. The one question about Morello is how well he will be able to handle the distance, given that the longest he has gone is 1 mi. in the Gotham, which he won by four lengths. Projecting dominantly in LP, Mo Donegal should pose a challenge down the stretch along with Golden Code, who ranks second in LP at 22.8% while having progressed in each of his three starts. It will be interesting to see how Early Voting does on the pace and whether he can steal the race from Morello, if left unchallenged early on. It’s worth nothing that Early Noting projects nearly as well as Morello in COMP at 25.3%. The final selections are #5 Morello, #3 Early Voting, #1 Mo Donegal and #8 Barese.    

Today at Keeneland is the $1 mil. G1 Blue Grass Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race has a field of twelve horses and features Smile Happy, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchhill in Nov. and runner up in the Risen Star at Oaklawn, and Ethereal Rd., who came in second in the Rebel at Oaklawn behind Un Ojo. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Smile Happy in this race with a total win probability of 24.58%, who projects 1^st in final speed at 42.6% and has the highest win percentage at 23.6%. Second is #4 Zandon with a 14.73% total win probability. While projecting speed across E1, E2 and LP, including ranking second in LP with 28.4% win probability, Zandon is expensive at 5-2 on the money line, when the horse’s fair value is closer to 5-1. Third is #9 Rattle N Roll with a 11.27% total win probability, who projects 2^nd in final speed at 15.8%. Fourth is #8 Ethereal Rd. with 11.26% total win probability. Ethereal Rd. projects first in LP at 45.1% and has value at 20-1 on the morning line. In the final analysis, Smile Happy is in the driver’s seat as being both the class and projecting best in terms of final speed, but there is a reason for concern because of his mediocre COMP value at 19%, indicating that his speed components in the aggregate are not particularly strong compared to the other horses. On that basis, his fair value is in the 4-1 range. In fact, the second selection, Zandon, projects first in COMP at 22.8% and #6 Emmanuel is 2nd at 19.2%, who ranks third on the money line. Emmanuel disappointed in his last race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, where he finished 4^th, and otherwise has a low win percentage at only 4.7%. Considering that none of the horses are projecting higher than 22% in COMP, I believe this race is wide open, where not only the favorite Smile Happy is vulnerable, but also long shots like #2 Fenwick and #5 Volcanic have chances to hit the board and possibly win. The final selections are #10 Smile Happy, #4 Zandon, #9 Rattle N Roll and #8 Ethereal Rd.