Blue Grass Stakes Preview at Keenland, Sat., Apr. 9

Today at Keeneland is the $1 mil. G1 Blue Grass Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race has a field of twelve horses and features Smile Happy, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchhill in Nov. and runner up in the Risen Star at Oaklawn, and Ethereal Rd., who came in second in the Rebel at Oaklawn behind Un Ojo. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Smile Happy in this race with a total win probability of 24.58%, who projects 1^st in final speed at 42.6% and has the highest win percentage at 23.6%. Second is #4 Zandon with a 14.73% total win probability. While projecting speed across E1, E2 and LP, including ranking second in LP with 28.4% win probability, Zandon is expensive at 5-2 on the money line, when the horse’s fair value is closer to 5-1. Third is #9 Rattle N Roll with a 11.27% total win probability, who projects 2^nd in final speed at 15.8%. Fourth is #8 Ethereal Rd. with 11.26% total win probability. Ethereal Rd. projects first in LP at 45.1% and has value at 20-1 on the morning line. In the final analysis, Smile Happy is in the driver’s seat as being both the class and projecting best in terms of final speed, but there is a reason for concern because of his mediocre COMP value at 19%, indicating that his speed components in the aggregate are not particularly strong compared to the other horses. On that basis, his fair value is in the 4-1 range. In fact, the second selection, Zandon, projects first in COMP at 22.8% and #6 Emmanuel is 2nd at 19.2%, who ranks third on the money line. Emmanuel disappointed in his last race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, where he finished 4^th, and otherwise has a low win percentage at only 4.7%. Considering that none of the horses are projecting higher than 22% in COMP, I believe this race is wide open, where not only the favorite Smile Happy is vulnerable, but also long shots like #2 Fenwick and #5 Volcanic have chances to hit the board and possibly win. The final selections are #10 Smile Happy, #4 Zandon, #9 Rattle N Roll and #8 Ethereal Rd.