Month: May 2022

One of the best habits to have as a handicapper is to be patient and wait for the right opportunities. One such opportunity came today in the 4th race at Pimlico, a $10K claming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. The betting favorite was #4 Special Freedom at 9-5, who did not show anything spectacular statistically with a winning percentage of 22.6% and a final speed estimate of 26%. Both of those metrics would equate to around 3-1 in odds. The model favorite was #6 Dauntless Gal with a 23.83% total win probability, who was a slight underlay at 4-1. #5 My Super Sally at 11-1 was the third selection in the model, but had the highest final speed estimate at 26% along with the highest LP estimate at 82.3%. The latter was extraordinarily high and earned the horse a FIT2 checkmark. At 11-1 My Super Sally had a lot of value with an expected ROI value of 136%, when anything above 100% is generally good. In the race, My Super Sally flew down the stretch to catch the leader, #7 Moon Biz, at the wire. My Super Sally paid $25 for the win, while the exacta (5,7), which were the models’ 2nd and 3rd selections, paid $100.80. The race underscores the value of the Handicap Wizard approach, which identified My Super Sally’s superior speed metrics in SPD and LP and allowed the bettor to realize substantial value on a horse that had 4-1 overall strength, including 2-5 late speed, but was priced at 11-1. The race illustrates how one can truly win in horse racing with proper evaluation and by having good discernment of value.

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Today at Pimlico is the $1.5 mil. G1 Preakness Stakes, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. From a field of nine the race features a number of top horses, including Epicenter, who was runner-up in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago at Churchhill and previously, won the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes at Oaklawn. Another is the filly, Secret Oath, winner of the G1 Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago at Churchill, as well as lightly raced Early Voting, who won the Withers at Aqueduct in Feb. and finished 2^nd in the Wood Memorial in April. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #5 Early Voting as its top selection, who has a total win probability of 27.45%. The horse projects 1^st in final speed at 37.8%, while projecting similarly strong in E1, E2 and LP. Next is the #8 Epicenter, the morning line favorite at 6-5, with a 23% total win probability. Though projecting worse in final speed at 10.8% win probability, Epicenter has the highest win percentage in the field at 33.0%. Third is #4 Secret Oath with a 16.6% total win probability, while #9 Skippylongstocking is the fourth selection at 12.12% total win probability. It’s understandable that Epicenter would be the favorite in this race after being narrowly beaten in the Kentucky Derby by Rich Strike, whose win was as improbable as one will ever see in horse racing. Yet, Epicenter is not necessarily a lock in this race, who is making the short-turnaround with only two weeks rest, whereas Early Voting last raced 42 days ago. Undoubtedly, Epicenter is the class in the field with the highest win percentage at 33%, while also having the lowest risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4.47%. This is what the race boils down to: Epicenter’s classiness versus Early Voting’s speed, who is riskier in having a CV value of 13.23% in three starts. As far as trainers, Chad Brown has won the Preakness more recently in 2017 with Cloud Computing. Epicenter’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, won the Preakness further in the past in 2007 and 2009 with Curlin and Rachel Alexandra. The jockey win percentages of Jose Ortiz and Joel Rosario are identical this year at 21%. What goes against Epicenter is that the Kentucky Derby was not the fastest race because of the fast early fractions, while several horses have exceeded his 101 final speed effort in their own past performances, including Early Voting, Secret Oath and Skippylongstocking. Unless Epicenter can outrun Early Voting early on and hold the lead, Early Voting has the edge in its LP projection that he should be able to overtake Epicenter down the stretch to win. None of the other horses pose a threat to Epicenter like Early Voting. The last time Secret Oath ran against the colts in the Arkansas Derby, she came in 3^rd in that 1 1/8 mi. race. Skippylongstocking finished 3^rd in the Wood Memorial behind Early Voting, who was beaten by Mo Donegal at the wire. The final selections are #5 Early Voting, #8 Epicenter, #4 Secret Oath and #9 Skippylongstocking.

On Saturday, May 7th, is the $3 mil. Kentucky Derby, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features the best three-year olds in the country, including Florida Derby winner, White Abarrio, Wood Memorial Winner, Mo Donegal, Santa Anita Derby winner, Taiba, Toyota Blue Grass winner, Zandon, and Arkansas Derby winner, Cyberknife, among others. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #6 Messier in this race with a total win probability of 18.79%, who projects 1^st in final speed at 38.6% and also 1^st in COMP at 45.3%. Second is #12 Taiba with a 15.4% total win probability, who projects second in final speed at 33.7% and 1^st in winning percentage at 9.4% after winning the Santa Anita Derby. The horse received a FIT2 check mark for ranking among the two best horses in both final speed and winning percentage. Third is #1 Mo Donegal with a 12.24% win probability, who projects third in final speed at 18.6% but first in LP at 44.4%, for which it earned at FIT2 checkmark. Fourth is #15 White Abarrio with an 8.5% total win probability, who is only showing strength in E1 and E2 with estimates of 25.3% and 30.9%. In the final analysis, it appears the Kentucky Derby winner will be one of the two horses coming out of Santa Anita in Messier and Taiba. The program gives a slight edge to Messier for its top final speed estimate and for its fairly strong estimates in E1 and E2 of 27.3% and 27.8%. However, its final speed estimate is somewhat inflated because of the horse’ higher risk, which is reflected in its CV value of 11.67%. That and its low win percentage explain why Messier is being discounted at 8-1 on the money line, not to mention the horse finishing second to Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby. Today’s Washington Post had a positive article on Messier, saying a few things: that he had the best lineage for the classic distance; that he’s progressed in each of his races; that he’s a stalker, which is the best running style to have; that he had a +100 Brisnet final speed figure. The Post pointed out that horses with plus 100 Bris speed figures won nineteen out of the last twenty-two races. Another horse with a +100 speed figure is Taiba, who has a comparable final speed estimate to Messier at 33.7% but with lower risk. Those who say that it’s a negative that the horse had had only two starts are not being real. Taiba won the Santa Anita Derby with the highest final speed figure in the field, while beating the favorite in the race in Messier, who was around 1-1. The other reason to like both Messier and Taiba is their strong COMP values at 45.3% and 32%, indicating superiority in terms of their component speed figures in the aggregate. Mo Donegal is another strong contender with the best late speed profile for the distance of 1 ¼ mi. The question with him is whether he will be able to get clear of traffic coming out of post one and will he be forwardly placed enough, so that he will be able to make his big run in time. White Abbario does not appear to have enough speed in this race compared to the top three contenders, getting 0% for its final speed projection and only 7% for COMP. Regarding the top M/L picks in Zandon and Epicenter, they don’t have the data to support the valuations at 3-1 and 7-2. If they did, their total win probabilities would be around 25%, and they’re at 6.44% and only 4.08% for Epicenter. As the workouts of both horses in the last month have been just ok, it begs the question how these horses are going to step up so significantly that they can beat Messier, Taiba or Mo Donegal. The final selections are #6 Messier, #12 Taiba, #1 Mo Donegal and #15 White Abarrio.