Preakness Stakes, Sat., May 21, 2022

Today at Pimlico is the $1.5 mil. G1 Preakness Stakes, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. From a field of nine the race features a number of top horses, including Epicenter, who was runner-up in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago at Churchhill and previously, won the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes at Oaklawn. Another is the filly, Secret Oath, winner of the G1 Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago at Churchill, as well as lightly raced Early Voting, who won the Withers at Aqueduct in Feb. and finished 2^nd in the Wood Memorial in April. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #5 Early Voting as its top selection, who has a total win probability of 27.45%. The horse projects 1^st in final speed at 37.8%, while projecting similarly strong in E1, E2 and LP. Next is the #8 Epicenter, the morning line favorite at 6-5, with a 23% total win probability. Though projecting worse in final speed at 10.8% win probability, Epicenter has the highest win percentage in the field at 33.0%. Third is #4 Secret Oath with a 16.6% total win probability, while #9 Skippylongstocking is the fourth selection at 12.12% total win probability. It’s understandable that Epicenter would be the favorite in this race after being narrowly beaten in the Kentucky Derby by Rich Strike, whose win was as improbable as one will ever see in horse racing. Yet, Epicenter is not necessarily a lock in this race, who is making the short-turnaround with only two weeks rest, whereas Early Voting last raced 42 days ago. Undoubtedly, Epicenter is the class in the field with the highest win percentage at 33%, while also having the lowest risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4.47%. This is what the race boils down to: Epicenter’s classiness versus Early Voting’s speed, who is riskier in having a CV value of 13.23% in three starts. As far as trainers, Chad Brown has won the Preakness more recently in 2017 with Cloud Computing. Epicenter’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, won the Preakness further in the past in 2007 and 2009 with Curlin and Rachel Alexandra. The jockey win percentages of Jose Ortiz and Joel Rosario are identical this year at 21%. What goes against Epicenter is that the Kentucky Derby was not the fastest race because of the fast early fractions, while several horses have exceeded his 101 final speed effort in their own past performances, including Early Voting, Secret Oath and Skippylongstocking. Unless Epicenter can outrun Early Voting early on and hold the lead, Early Voting has the edge in its LP projection that he should be able to overtake Epicenter down the stretch to win. None of the other horses pose a threat to Epicenter like Early Voting. The last time Secret Oath ran against the colts in the Arkansas Derby, she came in 3^rd in that 1 1/8 mi. race. Skippylongstocking finished 3^rd in the Wood Memorial behind Early Voting, who was beaten by Mo Donegal at the wire. The final selections are #5 Early Voting, #8 Epicenter, #4 Secret Oath and #9 Skippylongstocking.