By One of the best habits to have as a handicapper is to be patient and wait for the right opportunities. One such opportunity came today in the 4th race at Pimlico, a $10K claming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. The betting favorite was #4 Special Freedom at 9-5, who did not show anything spectacular statistically with a winning percentage of 22.6% and a final speed estimate of 26%. Both of those metrics would equate to around 3-1 in odds. The model favorite was #6 Dauntless Gal with a 23.83% total win probability, who was a slight underlay at 4-1. #5 My Super Sally at 11-1 was the third selection in the model, but had the highest final speed estimate at 26% along with the highest LP estimate at 82.3%. The latter was extraordinarily high and earned the horse a FIT2 checkmark. At 11-1 My Super Sally had a lot of value with an expected ROI value of 136%, when anything above 100% is generally good. In the race, My Super Sally flew down the stretch to catch the leader, #7 Moon Biz, at the wire. My Super Sally paid $25 for the win, while the exacta (5,7), which were the models’ 2nd and 3rd selections, paid $100.80. The race underscores the value of the Handicap Wizard approach, which identified My Super Sally’s superior speed metrics in SPD and LP and allowed the bettor to realize substantial value on a horse that had 4-1 overall strength, including 2-5 late speed, but was priced at 11-1. The race illustrates how one can truly win in horse racing with proper evaluation and by having good discernment of value.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 