Month: June 2022

The Handicap Wizard turf program had a nice result yesterday in the 10th race at Belmont, the G1 Manhattan, Stakes, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and up. The program’s second selection was #7 Tribhuvan (FR), who had a total win probability of 17.36%. The horse’s fair value was around 5-1 compared to final odds of 19. The horse projected dominantly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 72.0% and 60.9%. Although the horse had a final speed estimate of only 1.7% due to having fallen out of form, the COMP value of 40.3% signaled about 6-5 strength for the horse on the component level in the aggregate according to the simulation. As the program predicted, Tribhuvan went to the lead and held on to win impressively by four lengths. The COMP was key because of the horse’s low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.58%. The horse paid $40.20 for the win. This handicapper did have Tribhuvan to show.

Today at Belmont Park is the third leg of the Triple Crown, the $1.5 mil. Belmont Stakes, which is run at 1 ½ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike, who did not run in the Preakness, Wood Memorial Winner, Mo Donegal, Peter Pan winner, We the People, and Kentucky Oaks runner-up, Nest. The Handicap Wizard sees this race close between Rich Strike, Creative Minister and Mo Donegal, who all have total win probabilities of 17%. #4 Rich Strike is slightly favored due to his 33% win percentage, but otherwise projects 4^th in final speed at 12.0% while having higher than average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 10.3%. Second is #5 Creative Minister, who likely will be setting the pace in the race along with #2 Skippinglongstocking because of their strong E1 and E2 projections. Third is #6 Mo Donegal, who has the highest final speed estimate at 29.6% and the second highest LP projection at 25.7%. Fourth is #3 Nest with a total win probability of 13.8%, who has the second highest win percentage at almost 20%. The race ultimately sets up as a test between Rich Strike’s class versus Creative Minister’s speed and Mo Donegal’s late speed, though #1 We the People projects even stronger in LP with a 40% win estimate. The main question with Rich Strike, Mo Donegal and We the People is their higher than average risk. Each has had one good race, so the handicapper has to decide which horse is primed to turn in their best effort today while also having the stamina to go the 1 ½ mi. distance. That may be Rich Strike or Mo Donegal, who come in with more than a month’s rest after skipping the Preakness and have Keen Ice and Uncle Mo as their sires, respectively. On the other hand, We the People is the only horse in the field besides #7 Golden Glider who has a win at Belmont, which We the the People did impressively in the Peter Pan by 10 lengths. For that reason, We the People should be taken very seriously as a legit contender, even though he would be expensive at the 2-1 M/L price considering his low 6% win percentage, which is main reason the program does not rate the horse higher. The final selections are #4 Rich Strike, #5 Creative Minister, #6 Mo Donegal and #3 Nest.