In another race at Aqueduct, this time in the 9th, which was a $75K allowance race on the turf at 6f for three year olds, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Patria at 5-1 with a total win probability of 35.32%. Here the program solved Patria to be the best horse in the simulation, as one can see in the E1 and E2 win estimates of of 100% and a COMP value of 99%. The data profile is unquestionably dominating. In the race, the horse went out an early lead and went on to win by a length. It was too good to be true, yet it was true that Patria had a 2-1 odds equivalent valuation by the program and still went off at a big price at 5-1. This race is an example of where the horse really liked the turf, as indicative from the single superior data point on turf. Such data could only be captured with the Turf Program, which excluded Patria’s results on dirt, which were not stellar.
In race 6 at Aqueduct, a $90K allowance race at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three year olds and up, the Handicap Wizard Turf Program had the correct order of the exacta with its selections of #10 Chulainn and #2 Dripping Gold. Dripping Gold was the favorite in the race at 8-5, but the Handicap Wizard had Chulainn as its first selection at 3-1 with a total win probability of 27.05%, where the horse was a slight overlay. The race came down to Dripping Gold’s class with the highest win percentage in the field at 26.7% (around 3-1 fair value) compared to Chulainn’s speed, who had the highest final speed estimate at 36.9% and highest COMP at 55%. For the purpose of this race, I indicated #9 Hail to Thee scratched because of its anomalous 100% LP estimate, when the horse had only one data point and had not race in 200 days. Doing this, the user can see that Chulain had an LP win estimate of 31.9%, which is fairly strong and would have given the horse an edge down the final stretch. In the race, Chulain edged out Dripping Gold by a nose after stalking in third position and over taking Dripping Gold at the wire. The race illustrates how one can have confidence in the program and its valuations and how it can still be effective and precise with a large field size and in higher stakes.
In race 5 at Aqueduct today, a $50K allowance race run at 1 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old, there was an excellent opportunity with #5 Tough Street, who was an overlay at 8-5 odds, when her fair value was 1-1. Statistically, the horse was a clear favorite, dominating nearly every metric from SPD to WP. Yet, the betting public had her as the second favorite to #6 Mia Bear at 3-2. In the race, Tough Street drew away down the stretch to win by three lengths. The difference between the 8-5 and the 1-1 odds is the meat on the bone.
Today at Keeneland is the $6 Mil. Breeders Cup Classic, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up. The race features a stellar field, including favorite, #4 Flightline, who is undefeated in five starts after winning the Pacific Classic by nineteen lengths in September in a blistering time of 1:59. Vying against him is Baffert trained, #1 Taiba, who is a two-time G1 winner in five races. Taiba won the Pennsylvania Derby at 1 1/8 mi. at Parx in Sept. There is also #2 Life is Good, winner of his last three races, including two G1 races in the Woodward in Oct. and the Whitney in Aug, which both were at 1 1/8mi. Another horse is Kentucky Derby runner-up, Epicenter, who has won or finished second in his last six races, including winning the Travers at 1 ¼ mi. at Saratoga in Aug. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #4 Flightline in this race with a total win probability of 35.18%. Flightline projects best in final speed with a 63.3% win estimate, while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 4.79%. He also has the best COMP value at 48.1%. Flightline’s fair value according to SPD and COMP is 1/2 or better. The one weakness Flightline has is his class, whose adjusted win percentage of 11.6% is fourth best after Hot Rod Charlie, Life is Good and Epicenter. The second selection is #1 Taiba with a total win probability of 17.21%, which gives him some value at 8-1 on the M/L. Taiba projects second in final speed with a 21% win estimate but has higher risk with a 11.25% Coefficient of Variance. Taiba has the edge in LP with a 55.1% win estimate. The third selection is #2 Life is Good with a total win probability of 16.73%. Life is Good projects fairly well across E1, E2, and LP, but what is most notable is his 30% COMP, which has a 2-1 fair value according to that metric. For the fourth selection, it’s a toss up between #5 Hot Rod Charlie and #6 Epicenter, who both have total win probabilities of around 10% versus odds of 15-1% and 5-1, respectively, on the M/L. In the final analysis, Flightline is in the driver’s seat in the race, who likely will be on the lead in the early going, as the horse projects 2nd in E1 at 36.3% and first in E2 at 79.3%. The E2 value is a big number, indicating Flightline will likely be well ahead of the field heading into the last quarter mile, when Taiba, Epicenter and Life is Good will all be challenging because of their 20% or better LP estimates. Taiba’s 55.1% LP estimate stands out, even though there is some variance behind that number. It all depends on whether Taiba is able to maintain the form he had in the Pennsylvania Derby from late September. If the track conditions are dry, Life is Good could be competitive if he can repeat his performance in the Whitney from Aug. at Saratoga, when he put up a 113 final speed number on the dry track while turning away Hot Rod Charlie and Happy Saver down the stretch. The final selections according to the program are #4 Flightline, #1 Taiba, #2 Life is Good and #5 Hot Rod Charlie.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 