Day: November 19, 2022

In another race at Aqueduct, this time in the 9th, which was a $75K allowance race on the turf at 6f for three year olds, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Patria at 5-1 with a total win probability of 35.32%. Here the program solved Patria to be the best horse in the simulation, as one can see in the E1 and E2 win estimates of of 100% and a COMP value of 99%. The data profile is unquestionably dominating. In the race, the horse went out an early lead and went on to win by a length. It was too good to be true, yet it was true that Patria had a 2-1 odds equivalent valuation by the program and still went off at a big price at 5-1. This race is an example of where the horse really liked the turf, as indicative from the single superior data point on turf. Such data could only be captured with the Turf Program, which excluded Patria’s results on dirt, which were not stellar.

In race 6 at Aqueduct, a $90K allowance race at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three year olds and up, the Handicap Wizard Turf Program had the correct order of the exacta with its selections of #10 Chulainn and #2 Dripping Gold. Dripping Gold was the favorite in the race at 8-5, but the Handicap Wizard had Chulainn as its first selection at 3-1 with a total win probability of 27.05%, where the horse was a slight overlay. The race came down to Dripping Gold’s class with the highest win percentage in the field at 26.7% (around 3-1 fair value) compared to Chulainn’s speed, who had the highest final speed estimate at 36.9% and highest COMP at 55%. For the purpose of this race, I indicated #9 Hail to Thee scratched because of its anomalous 100% LP estimate, when the horse had only one data point and had not race in 200 days. Doing this, the user can see that Chulain had an LP win estimate of 31.9%, which is fairly strong and would have given the horse an edge down the final stretch. In the race, Chulain edged out Dripping Gold by a nose after stalking in third position and over taking Dripping Gold at the wire. The race illustrates how one can have confidence in the program and its valuations and how it can still be effective and precise with a large field size and in higher stakes.