By In race 6 at Aqueduct, a $90K allowance race at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three year olds and up, the Handicap Wizard Turf Program had the correct order of the exacta with its selections of #10 Chulainn and #2 Dripping Gold. Dripping Gold was the favorite in the race at 8-5, but the Handicap Wizard had Chulainn as its first selection at 3-1 with a total win probability of 27.05%, where the horse was a slight overlay. The race came down to Dripping Gold’s class with the highest win percentage in the field at 26.7% (around 3-1 fair value) compared to Chulainn’s speed, who had the highest final speed estimate at 36.9% and highest COMP at 55%. For the purpose of this race, I indicated #9 Hail to Thee scratched because of its anomalous 100% LP estimate, when the horse had only one data point and had not race in 200 days. Doing this, the user can see that Chulain had an LP win estimate of 31.9%, which is fairly strong and would have given the horse an edge down the final stretch. In the race, Chulain edged out Dripping Gold by a nose after stalking in third position and over taking Dripping Gold at the wire. The race illustrates how one can have confidence in the program and its valuations and how it can still be effective and precise with a large field size and in higher stakes.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 