Month: December 2022

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in the first graded stakes race at Gulfstream today in the 6th, the $125 Rampart Stakes, which was run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three year filles and mares. #7 Maryquitecontrary had the highest win probability at 26.8% versus final odds of 9/5, which made her a slight overlay. Maryquitecontray had the highest LP projection at 88.2%, which showed around the far turn with the horse surging from last to first. By win percentage at 24% the horse had a 3-1 fair value and had low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 3.68%. Marquitecontrary paid $5.80 for the win.

In a race with a lot of risky horses, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in the second race at Aqueduct. At 5-1, #10 Fenway had a 22% win total win probability versus final odds of 5-1, which made the horse an overlay. The horse’s odds had been as high as 8-1 shortly before the post. As can be seen from Fenway’s high E1 and E2 projections of 95.7% and 39%, the horse was the only speed in the race at 6 1/2f. Taking the lead uncontested early on, Fenway was able to get ahead by enough down the stretch to win before tiring by the end. The horse’s COMP value of 24% indicated that Fenway had around 3-1 winning strength in the simulation of speed figures (E1, E2 and LP) added together. Here the race played out largely as expected. Fenway paid $12.40 for the win. Note, however, that Fenway was a high-risk horse with a Coefficient of Variance of 22%, which normally would be a red flag in consistency.

Another positive result for the program today was in the 8th race at Aqueduct, a $28k claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year files and mares, where the program had the correct order of the exacta. #11 Jerusalema was the first selection with a total win probability of 25% versus final odds of 4-1, which made her an overlay. The horse had the highest final speed projection at 37% after throwing out its last two anomalous final speed figures, which the program does automatically. The horse also had a high COMP value at 46%, signaling strength in its component speed figures in the aggregate. The second selection was #12 Raffinity at 8-5, who had a total win probability of 19.07%. In the race, Jerusalema stalked Raffinity from second position after the half mile before taking the lead coming out of the far turn. The horse went on to win by four lengths. Jerusalema paid $10 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard had a good result today in the 8th race at Gulfstream, a $25K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program’s first selection was #3 Therapist with a total win probability of 20.50% versus final odds of 7-2. At that price, the horse was slight underlay when its fair value was 4-1. The favorite was #6 On Thin Ice at 5-2, who had no statistical support for those odds. Therapist tied with #12 Battle Scars for having the highest SPD win projection at 35%, although Therapist’s risk was lower with a Coefficient of Variance of 4.85%. In the race, Therapist broke to the lead after coming five wide out of the far turn and then surged down the stretch to win by three lengths. Therapist paid $9 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in #5 Venti Valentine in the $100K Bayridge Stakes at Aqueduct today, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year filles and mares. With a total win probability of 33.12%, Venti Valentine was priced roughly at fair value at 2-1, while the favorite, #6 Let Her Inspire U, was at 4-5. This race came down to Venti-Valentine’s class (35.3% WP) versus Let Her Inspire U’s speed (51% SPD), with Venti Valentine rallying down the stretch to win on the mud at Aqueduct.