The Handicap Wizard Turf program had the correct order of the exacta in the 4th race at Gulfstream on Friday. In the 4th race, a $20K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the Turf program had #9 Kizzy as its first selection at 10-1 odds with a total win probability of 17% or about 6-1 fair value. Its second selection was #5 French Franc at 2-1. The $2 exacta paid $84.70. This is a good example of why the Handicap Wizard approach works in filtering only turf data. The market did not account for Kizzy’s strength on turf in its pricing, which the Handicap Wizard factored correctly in calculating win probability.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 