Day: December 17, 2022

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in #5 Venti Valentine in the $100K Bayridge Stakes at Aqueduct today, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year filles and mares. With a total win probability of 33.12%, Venti Valentine was priced roughly at fair value at 2-1, while the favorite, #6 Let Her Inspire U, was at 4-5. This race came down to Venti-Valentine’s class (35.3% WP) versus Let Her Inspire U’s speed (51% SPD), with Venti Valentine rallying down the stretch to win on the mud at Aqueduct.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in race 4 yesterday at Tampa, a $20K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three year olds. Against two horses with lower odds and another with the same odds at 7/2, the program had #2 Hard Belle rated best with a total win probability of 27.4%. At that price the horse was a slight overlay. Hard Belle had the highest final speed estimate of 50% versus average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.28%. The horse also had the highest LP estimate at 66.2%, indicating dominant strength in late speed. Thanks to some very good jockeying down the stretch, the horse wove through traffic to win by a head. Everything that the program projected in Hard Belle’s top final and late speed you could see in this race.