Day: December 30, 2022

Another positive result for the program today was in the 8th race at Aqueduct, a $28k claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year files and mares, where the program had the correct order of the exacta. #11 Jerusalema was the first selection with a total win probability of 25% versus final odds of 4-1, which made her an overlay. The horse had the highest final speed projection at 37% after throwing out its last two anomalous final speed figures, which the program does automatically. The horse also had a high COMP value at 46%, signaling strength in its component speed figures in the aggregate. The second selection was #12 Raffinity at 8-5, who had a total win probability of 19.07%. In the race, Jerusalema stalked Raffinity from second position after the half mile before taking the lead coming out of the far turn. The horse went on to win by four lengths. Jerusalema paid $10 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard had a good result today in the 8th race at Gulfstream, a $25K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program’s first selection was #3 Therapist with a total win probability of 20.50% versus final odds of 7-2. At that price, the horse was slight underlay when its fair value was 4-1. The favorite was #6 On Thin Ice at 5-2, who had no statistical support for those odds. Therapist tied with #12 Battle Scars for having the highest SPD win projection at 35%, although Therapist’s risk was lower with a Coefficient of Variance of 4.85%. In the race, Therapist broke to the lead after coming five wide out of the far turn and then surged down the stretch to win by three lengths. Therapist paid $9 for the win.