Day: December 31, 2022

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in the first graded stakes race at Gulfstream today in the 6th, the $125 Rampart Stakes, which was run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three year filles and mares. #7 Maryquitecontrary had the highest win probability at 26.8% versus final odds of 9/5, which made her a slight overlay. Maryquitecontray had the highest LP projection at 88.2%, which showed around the far turn with the horse surging from last to first. By win percentage at 24% the horse had a 3-1 fair value and had low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of just 3.68%. Marquitecontrary paid $5.80 for the win.

In a race with a lot of risky horses, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in the second race at Aqueduct. At 5-1, #10 Fenway had a 22% win total win probability versus final odds of 5-1, which made the horse an overlay. The horse’s odds had been as high as 8-1 shortly before the post. As can be seen from Fenway’s high E1 and E2 projections of 95.7% and 39%, the horse was the only speed in the race at 6 1/2f. Taking the lead uncontested early on, Fenway was able to get ahead by enough down the stretch to win before tiring by the end. The horse’s COMP value of 24% indicated that Fenway had around 3-1 winning strength in the simulation of speed figures (E1, E2 and LP) added together. Here the race played out largely as expected. Fenway paid $12.40 for the win. Note, however, that Fenway was a high-risk horse with a Coefficient of Variance of 22%, which normally would be a red flag in consistency.