By In a race with a lot of risky horses, the Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in the second race at Aqueduct. At 5-1, #10 Fenway had a 22% win total win probability versus final odds of 5-1, which made the horse an overlay. The horse’s odds had been as high as 8-1 shortly before the post. As can be seen from Fenway’s high E1 and E2 projections of 95.7% and 39%, the horse was the only speed in the race at 6 1/2f. Taking the lead uncontested early on, Fenway was able to get ahead by enough down the stretch to win before tiring by the end. The horse’s COMP value of 24% indicated that Fenway had around 3-1 winning strength in the simulation of speed figures (E1, E2 and LP) added together. Here the race played out largely as expected. Fenway paid $12.40 for the win. Note, however, that Fenway was a high-risk horse with a Coefficient of Variance of 22%, which normally would be a red flag in consistency.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 