Month: December 2022

The Handicap Wizard had the winner with its first selection in race 4 yesterday at Tampa, a $20K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three year olds. Against two horses with lower odds and another with the same odds at 7/2, the program had #2 Hard Belle rated best with a total win probability of 27.4%. At that price the horse was a slight overlay. Hard Belle had the highest final speed estimate of 50% versus average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.28%. The horse also had the highest LP estimate at 66.2%, indicating dominant strength in late speed. Thanks to some very good jockeying down the stretch, the horse wove through traffic to win by a head. Everything that the program projected in Hard Belle’s top final and late speed you could see in this race.

The Handicapwizard Grey Version had the winner with its first selection, #6 Winter’s Ghost, in the 3rd race at Tampa, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The horse went off at 9-5, but there were indications in the data like with its SPD, LP and COMP estimates of 78.4%, 50.1% and 72.3% that the horse’s true value was some where between 2-5 and 1-1. With such dominating projections, Winter’s Ghost sailed to victory in easy fashion, winning by nine-lengths.

The Handicap Wizard had the winner in the one stakes races at Hawthorne today in the 5th, which was at 6 1/2f on the dirt for two years olds. The program’s first selection was #7 Looking for Bala at 1-1, who had a total win probability of 38.21%. In the race, the horse held on to win over #6 Fever Nation at 15-1.

The Handicap Wizard Turf program had the correct order of the exacta in the 4th race at Gulfstream on Friday. In the 4th race, a $20K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the Turf program had #9 Kizzy as its first selection at 10-1 odds with a total win probability of 17% or about 6-1 fair value. Its second selection was #5 French Franc at 2-1. The $2 exacta paid $84.70. This is a good example of why the Handicap Wizard approach works in filtering only turf data. The market did not account for Kizzy’s strength on turf in its pricing, which the Handicap Wizard factored correctly in calculating win probability.

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