For those that watched the Pegasus Invitational yesterday, you saw a thriller with Art Collector pulling the upset in his last career start as a six-year old. Although the horse was not among the top four selections in the program, there was evidence that Art Collector had value at his price of 15-1, dropping from 19-1 shortly before the post. The value can be seen in his Win Percentage (WP) of 12.7%, only behind Cyberknife’s at 22.4%. 12.7% would be Art Collector’s probability of winning based upon the historical money finishes of the horses alone. On that basis, Art Collector’s fair value was about 8-1, but given his recent performance with Brisnet final speed figures only in the 90s, the market had discounted him because of his weak form. Yet, this is exactly when one should be playing these kind of horses, who tend to bounce back, especially if they can get with the right trainer, like Art Collector did with Mott. Art Collector showed back class in recording the highest final speed figures of 110 and 107 six and seven races back. This handicapper took Art Collector to win and it paid off. Looking at the Win Percentage alone is one of the strategies discussed in the book on the PHW method, which can be found on the site. To see the image in full-resolution, click on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner, scroll down and click on the link for the full-size image.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 