By The Handicap Wizard had a good result today in the 6th race at Gulfstream, a $20K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. The program had #5 American of Course as its first selection with a total win probability of 26.26% compared to final odds of 3-1. The handicapper should understand that the horse’s odds upon conversion from probability is nearly identical to the final odds, showing how accurate the program is that it can independently arrive at that market valuation. American of Course projected 1st in SPD at 33.3%, while having relatively low risk of 6.67% for the Coefficient of Variance. The horse had strong E1 and E2 estimate of 36.5% and 46.5%—well suited to the 7f distance—and also a strong COMP value of 40.7% (about 7-5 fair value in this metric). The odds favorite, #7 Invaluable, at 6-5 had a win probability of 17.23%, making him a considerable overlay. In the race, American of Course took the early lead and went on to win convincingly in the short field.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 