By Today at Oaklawn is the $1 mil. Rebel Stakes, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features #6 Reincarnate, winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita in Jan., #5 Giant Mischief, runner-up in the Springboard Mile at Remington, and #1 Verifying, runner-up in the Champaign stakes at Belmont at Aqueduct in Nov. The program has #6 Reincarnate as it first selection with a total win probability of 15.74%. The horse projects first in SPD with a 25.2% win probability while also having the high COMP projection at 33.8%. At 7/2 on the M/L the horse is slightly undervalued at that price in terms of total win probability, but fairly valued against its SPD projection. Second is #5 Giant Mischief with a 14.58% total win probability, who projects second in SPD with a 22.8% win estimate. At 5/2 on the M/L Giant Mischief is an underlay and also has higher than average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 16.96% in three starts. Third is #11 Frosted Departure with a 12.82% total win probability versus a 20-1 M/L price, making him a substantial overlay, when his fair value is around 8-1. Fourth is Red Route One with a total win probability of 11.57% versus a M/L price of 10-1. Breaking down the numbers, there is value in Reincarnate at 7/2 from his final speed projection, but Giant Mischief gets a FIT2 checkmark for ranking in the top two for both its final speed projection and win percentage. Red Route One is the class in the race, albeit by a narrow margin, with a win percentage of 15.1%. He also projects best in terms of late speed or LP at 46.4% win probability. The final selections are #6 Reincarnate, #5 Giant Mischief, #11 Frosted Departure and #3 Red Route One.
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