The Rebel Recap, Sun., Feb. 26

Horseplayers saw a thrilling race at Oaklawn on Sat. on the sloppy track, with #7 Confidence Game (19-1) surprising in the upset, holding off a late charging #3 Red Route One (9-1), who had gone wide around the far turn and then met interference from the veering #10 Bourdon Bash from the the center of the track. Confidence Game won by under a length. One has to wonder whether Red Route One would have won without the interference, but there was no foul for Bourbon Bash who did not place. Confidence Game had early speed, as indicated by his E1 and E2 values of 36.6% and 36.8%, and had the third highest COMP value at 12.6% (8-1 fair value). Confidence Game would have been a risky play, as he needed to go the 1 1/16 mi. distance despite projecting poorly in LP with 0%. In the race, he was able to rate well enough to make and hold onto the lead down the stretch. Red Route One was highlighted in the analysis with his superior LP value of 46.1% and highest win percentage at 15.1%. For his LP value, Red Route One had the FIT2 checkmark, which is how the program marks legit contenders in races because of statistical superiority according to one or more metrics. Taking Red Route One would have put one in play for the exacta, but luck was still needed with Confidence Game as a long shot. The race is illustrative of how the high LP value (or any high values) of Red Route One translates to actual strength on the track, as seen in his late surge.