Here are the projections for the two Kentucky Derby prep races today–the Sam F. Davis at Tampa and the Withers at Aqueduct. To see the full-size image, click on the image, then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right corner. Scroll down and then click on the link for full-size.
Today at Gulfstream is the $250K Holy Bull–a Kentucky Derby prep race–run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three year olds. According to the program’s projections, the race appears between #6 Legacy Isle, #4 Cyclone Isle and #8 Rocket Can, who all have total win probabilities in the low 20% range. Legacy Isle projects early speed with the highest win estimates for E1 and E2 at 69.8% and 40.5%. He is the class in the field with the highest win percentage of 23.27% after his win in the Mucho Macho Man stakes at GP in Jan. The second selection is #4 Cyclone Mischief, who has the second highest SPD in the field at 35.9% (about 2-1 in terms of odds) according to the simulation versus a Coefficient of Variance of 10.68%, indicating somewhat higher risk after the horse’s jump-up to a 99 Brisnet final speed figure in his last race. The third selection is #8 Rocket Can, who has the highest SPD estimate at 39.2% as well as the highest risk with a CV of 14.91%. In the final analysis, all of the horses are still fairly green and there is low data integrity for the race because the horses don’t have a lot of history. So the handicapper should take caution with this race and with the program’s results. That said, #4 Cyclone Mischief does appear to have the edge in speed, even with the second highest SPD projection at 35.9%, because he has lower risk than Rocket Can while also having the highest SPD value overall at 99, which he recorded his last time out in a $75K allowance race at Gulfstream on Jan 23. This may not be a good distance for Legacy Isle, who has an LP projection of 0% and showed himself to be tiring coming into the wire in his last race at 1 mi., when this race is one furlong farther. It’s understandable then Cyclone’s Mischief’s M/L is 2-1, which is in line with his SPD projection. On the other hand, Rocket Can has comparable speed, albeit with the higher risk, but also is trained by Bill Mott, who just won the $3 mil. Pegasus with Art Collector, whereas Romans has come up short a lot in the big races, not counting Shackleford in the Preakness.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 