Month: March 2023

Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream. The clear favorite is #11 Forte at 4/5 on the M/L, who is valued just above that price according the program with a total win probability of 47.08% (close to 1-1). According to his SPD projection of 56.8% (win probability) and adjusted Win Percentage (WP) of 57.3%, he is valued at 4/5. The only real contender according to the data is #4 Mage, who projects favorably in SPD at 27.9% (3-1 strength) and COMP at 30.9% (2-1). What detracts from Mage is his WP of just 4.3%, which is low (20-1 equivalent). Mage is lightly raced and does not have the race history that Forte has (2 versus 6 races). The selections are #11 Forte, #4 Mage and #9 Cyclone Mischief. To see the imagine in full-size, click on it and then on the encircled i on the bottom right. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.

As highlighted in the preview, #6 Kingsbarn went wire to wire to victory today in the Louisiana Derby. The program detected his speed potential in the both SPD and COMP metrics, with COMP being significant at 32.6%, indicating 2-1 strength in the horse. He went off a 9-2. Kingsbarn paid $11.

Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Louisiana Derby at the Fairground. #2 Instant Coffee is the favorite according to the M/L and the model’s projections but is pricey at 2-1 in view of his total win probability of only 17.66%. There appears to be value with #4 Sun Thunder at 5-1 on the M/L because of his SPD projection of 23.8%, which would make his fair value closer to 3-1 according to that metric. Another horse worth considering is #6 Kingsbarns at 6-1 because of his SPD projection of 15.5% (about fair value) and COMP value of 32.6%, (2-1 fair value) signalling strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Otherwise, the selections look expensive at their M/L prices.