Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Louisiana Derby at the Fairground. #2 Instant Coffee is the favorite according to the M/L and the model’s projections but is pricey at 2-1 in view of his total win probability of only 17.66%. There appears to be value with #4 Sun Thunder at 5-1 on the M/L because of his SPD projection of 23.8%, which would make his fair value closer to 3-1 according to that metric. Another horse worth considering is #6 Kingsbarns at 6-1 because of his SPD projection of 15.5% (about fair value) and COMP value of 32.6%, (2-1 fair value) signalling strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Otherwise, the selections look expensive at their M/L prices.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 