By Here are the projections for tomorrow’s $1 mil. Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream. The clear favorite is #11 Forte at 4/5 on the M/L, who is valued just above that price according the program with a total win probability of 47.08% (close to 1-1). According to his SPD projection of 56.8% (win probability) and adjusted Win Percentage (WP) of 57.3%, he is valued at 4/5. The only real contender according to the data is #4 Mage, who projects favorably in SPD at 27.9% (3-1 strength) and COMP at 30.9% (2-1). What detracts from Mage is his WP of just 4.3%, which is low (20-1 equivalent). Mage is lightly raced and does not have the race history that Forte has (2 versus 6 races). The selections are #11 Forte, #4 Mage and #9 Cyclone Mischief. To see the imagine in full-size, click on it and then on the encircled i on the bottom right. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 